Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes
As Antarctic subglacial lake research progresses to in situ exploration an important topic is the lake's probable gas concentration. Depending on hydrological setting, subglacial lakes may contain large amounts of dissolved gas or gas trapped within clathrates. Consequently, access can be poten...
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Language: | English |
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2013
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Online Access: | https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/207317/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/207317/1/Brito_JAS_2011.pdf |
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ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:207317 2023-07-30T03:59:23+02:00 Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes Brito, M.P. Griffiths, G. Mowlem, M. Makinson, K. 2013-02 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/207317/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/207317/1/Brito_JAS_2011.pdf en eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/207317/1/Brito_JAS_2011.pdf Brito, M.P., Griffiths, G., Mowlem, M. and Makinson, K. (2013) Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes. Antarctic Science, 25 (1), 107-118. (doi:10.1017/S0954102012000442 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0954102012000442>). Article PeerReviewed 2013 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102012000442 2023-07-09T21:25:05Z As Antarctic subglacial lake research progresses to in situ exploration an important topic is the lake's probable gas concentration. Depending on hydrological setting, subglacial lakes may contain large amounts of dissolved gas or gas trapped within clathrates. Consequently, access can be potentially dangerous due to the risk of blowout where depressurization could lead to high-speed ejection of water and gas from a borehole. We present a structured approach to assess the blowout risk in subglacial lake exploration. The approach integrates a generic event tree, applicable to open and closed hydrological systems, with site-specific expert judgment incorporating rigorous probabilistic formulations. The methodology is applied to a motivating example: Ellsworth Subglacial Lake. Judgments elicited through a formal process were provided by five experts with 88 years combined experience that, after aggregation, gave a median risk of blowout of 1 in 2186 with a lower quartile of 1 in 3433 and an upper quartile of 1 in 1341. This approach can be applied to any subglacial lake given a modicum of knowledge on its hydrological setting, as uncertainty can be captured through the elicited judgments. Additionally, the event tree analysis informs blowout mitigation strategies to reduce risk of injury or death. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Science University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Antarctic Ellsworth Subglacial Lake ENVELOPE(-90.500,-90.500,-79.000,-79.000) Antarctic Science 25 1 107 118 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton |
op_collection_id |
ftsouthampton |
language |
English |
description |
As Antarctic subglacial lake research progresses to in situ exploration an important topic is the lake's probable gas concentration. Depending on hydrological setting, subglacial lakes may contain large amounts of dissolved gas or gas trapped within clathrates. Consequently, access can be potentially dangerous due to the risk of blowout where depressurization could lead to high-speed ejection of water and gas from a borehole. We present a structured approach to assess the blowout risk in subglacial lake exploration. The approach integrates a generic event tree, applicable to open and closed hydrological systems, with site-specific expert judgment incorporating rigorous probabilistic formulations. The methodology is applied to a motivating example: Ellsworth Subglacial Lake. Judgments elicited through a formal process were provided by five experts with 88 years combined experience that, after aggregation, gave a median risk of blowout of 1 in 2186 with a lower quartile of 1 in 3433 and an upper quartile of 1 in 1341. This approach can be applied to any subglacial lake given a modicum of knowledge on its hydrological setting, as uncertainty can be captured through the elicited judgments. Additionally, the event tree analysis informs blowout mitigation strategies to reduce risk of injury or death. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brito, M.P. Griffiths, G. Mowlem, M. Makinson, K. |
spellingShingle |
Brito, M.P. Griffiths, G. Mowlem, M. Makinson, K. Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes |
author_facet |
Brito, M.P. Griffiths, G. Mowlem, M. Makinson, K. |
author_sort |
Brito, M.P. |
title |
Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes |
title_short |
Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes |
title_full |
Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes |
title_fullStr |
Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes |
title_sort |
estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial antarctic lakes |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/207317/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/207317/1/Brito_JAS_2011.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-90.500,-90.500,-79.000,-79.000) |
geographic |
Antarctic Ellsworth Subglacial Lake |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Ellsworth Subglacial Lake |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Science |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Science |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/207317/1/Brito_JAS_2011.pdf Brito, M.P., Griffiths, G., Mowlem, M. and Makinson, K. (2013) Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes. Antarctic Science, 25 (1), 107-118. (doi:10.1017/S0954102012000442 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0954102012000442>). |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102012000442 |
container_title |
Antarctic Science |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
107 |
op_container_end_page |
118 |
_version_ |
1772810179586293760 |