Ten year recurrence time between two major earthquakes affecting the same fault segment

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Vallée, Martin, Satriano, Claudio
• Other Authors: Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2014
• Subjects: earthquake recurrence; rerupture; seismic gap hypothesis; dynamic stress; Scotia; [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]; Antarc*; Antarctic; Scotia Sea
• Online Access: https://insu.hal.science/insu-03581134; https://insu.hal.science/insu-03581134/document; https://insu.hal.science/insu-03581134/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202014%20-%20Vall%20e%20-%20Ten%20year%20recurrence%20time%20between%20two%20major%20earthquakes%20affecting%20the%20same.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059465

International audience Earthquake ruptures stop when they encounter barriers impeding further propagation. These barriers can theoretically originate from changes of geometry or nature of the seismic faults or from a strong lowering of the tectonic stresses, typically due to the occurrence of a recent major earthquake. We show here that this latter mechanism can be ineffective at stopping rupture expansion: the 17 November 2013 magnitude 7.8 Scotia Sea earthquake has propagated into a 100 km long zone already ruptured 10 years ago by a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. Given the plate velocities between Scotia and Antarctic plates (8-9 mm/yr), simple recurrence models would have predicted that the segment affected by the 2003 earthquake could not be reruptured by a major earthquake during several hundreds of years. This earthquake pair indicates that the variations of the tectonic stress during the seismic history of the fault are small compared to the stresses dynamically generated by a large earthquake.