A review of Arctic-Subarctic ocean linkages: past changes, mechanisms and future projections

• Published in: Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research
• Main Authors: Wang, Qiang, Shu, Qi, Wang, Shizhu, Beszczynska-Moeller, Agnieszka, Woodgate, Rebecca, Danilov, Sergey, de Steur, Laura, Karcher, Michael, Haine, Thomas, Lee, Craig, Myers, Paul, Polyakov, Igor, Provost, Christine, Skagseth, Oystein, Spreen, Gunnar
• Other Authors: Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), First Institute of Oceanography Qingdao (FIO), Ministry of Natural Resources of China, Institute of Oceanology, Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences = Académie polonaise des sciences (PAN), Applied Physics Laboratory Seattle (APL-UW), University of Washington Seattle, Universität Bremen, Norwegian Polar Institute, Johns Hopkins University (JHU), Applied Physics, School of Applied Sciences, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University (RMIT University), University of Alberta, University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Institute of Marine Research Bergen (IMR), University of Bergen (UiB)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Bering Strait; Fram Strait; Sea ice; Subarctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04116928; https://hal.science/hal-04116928/document; https://hal.science/hal-04116928/file/olar.0013.pdf; https://doi.org/10.34133/olar.0013

International audience Arctic Ocean gateway fluxes play a crucial role in linking the Arctic with the global ocean and affecting climate and marine ecosystems. We reviewed past studies on Arctic-Subarctic ocean linkages and examined their changes and driving mechanisms. Our review highlights that radical changes occurred in the inflows and outflows of the Arctic Ocean during the 2010s. Specifically, the Pacific inflow temperature in the Bering Strait and Atlantic inflow temperature in the Fram Strait hit record highs, while the Pacific inflow salinity in the Bering Strait and Arctic outflow salinity in the Davis and Fram straits hit record lows. Both the ocean heat convergence fromlower latitudes to the Arctic and the hydrological cycle connecting the Arctic with Subarctic seas were stronger in 2000–2020 than in 1980–2000. CMIP6 models project a continuing increase inpoleward ocean heat convergence in the 21st century, mainly due to warming of inflow waters. They also predict an increase in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean, with the largest increase in freshwater export expected to occur in the Fram Strait due to both increased ocean volume export and decreased salinity. Fram Strait sea ice volume export hit a record low in the 2010s and is projected to continue to decrease along with Arctic sea ice decline. We quantitatively attribute the variability of the volume, heat and freshwater transports in the Arctic gateways to forcing within and outside the Arctic based on dedicated numerical simulations and emphasize the importance of both origins in driving the variability