Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming
International audience Abstract CO 2 -forced surface warming in general circulation models (GCMs) is initially polar amplified in the Arctic but not in the Antarctic—a largely hemispherically antisymmetric signal. Nevertheless, we show in CESM1 and 11 LongRunMIP GCMs that the hemispherically symmetr...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2022
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03952637 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1 |
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English |
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[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Hill, Spencer Burls, Natalie Fedorov, Alexey Merlis, Timothy M. Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience Abstract CO 2 -forced surface warming in general circulation models (GCMs) is initially polar amplified in the Arctic but not in the Antarctic—a largely hemispherically antisymmetric signal. Nevertheless, we show in CESM1 and 11 LongRunMIP GCMs that the hemispherically symmetric component of global-mean-normalized, zonal-mean warming ( ) under 4 × CO 2 changes weakly or becomes modestly more polar amplified from the first decade to near-equilibrium. Conversely, the antisymmetric warming component ( ) weakens with time in all models, modestly in some including FAMOUS, but effectively vanishing in others including CESM1. We explore mechanisms underlying the robust behavior with a diffusive moist energy balance model (MEBM), which given radiative feedback parameter ( λ ) and ocean heat uptake ( ) fields diagnosed from CESM1 adequately reproduces the CESM1 and fields. In further MEBM simulations perturbing λ and , is sensitive to their symmetric components only, and more to that of λ . A three-box, two-time-scale model fitted to FAMOUS and CESM1 reveals a curiously short Antarctic fast-response time scale in FAMOUS. In additional CESM1 simulations spanning a broader range of forcings, changes modestly across 2–16 × CO 2 , and in a Pliocene-like simulation is more polar amplified but likewise approximately time invariant. Determining the real-world relevance of these behaviors—which imply that a surprising amount of information about near-equilibrium polar amplification emerges within decades—merits further study. |
author2 |
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Columbia University New York George Mason University Fairfax Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences New Haven Yale University New Haven Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Montréal McGill University = Université McGill Montréal, Canada ANR-18-MPGA-0001,ARCHANGE,Changement climatique et Arctique et circulation océanique globale(2018) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hill, Spencer Burls, Natalie Fedorov, Alexey Merlis, Timothy M. |
author_facet |
Hill, Spencer Burls, Natalie Fedorov, Alexey Merlis, Timothy M. |
author_sort |
Hill, Spencer |
title |
Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming |
title_short |
Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming |
title_full |
Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming |
title_fullStr |
Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming |
title_sort |
symmetric and antisymmetric components of polar-amplified warming |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03952637 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03952637 Journal of Climate, 2022, 35 (20), pp.3157-3172. ⟨10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1⟩ |
op_relation |
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op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
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35 |
container_issue |
20 |
container_start_page |
3157 |
op_container_end_page |
3172 |
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ftsorbonneuniv:oai:HAL:hal-03952637v1 2024-09-15T17:47:30+00:00 Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming Hill, Spencer Burls, Natalie Fedorov, Alexey Merlis, Timothy M. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Columbia University New York George Mason University Fairfax Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences New Haven Yale University New Haven Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Montréal McGill University = Université McGill Montréal, Canada ANR-18-MPGA-0001,ARCHANGE,Changement climatique et Arctique et circulation océanique globale(2018) 2022-10-15 https://hal.science/hal-03952637 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/2012.09228 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1 hal-03952637 https://hal.science/hal-03952637 ARXIV: 2012.09228 doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1 WOS: 000888269400015 ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03952637 Journal of Climate, 2022, 35 (20), pp.3157-3172. ⟨10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftsorbonneuniv https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1 2024-08-01T23:46:51Z International audience Abstract CO 2 -forced surface warming in general circulation models (GCMs) is initially polar amplified in the Arctic but not in the Antarctic—a largely hemispherically antisymmetric signal. Nevertheless, we show in CESM1 and 11 LongRunMIP GCMs that the hemispherically symmetric component of global-mean-normalized, zonal-mean warming ( ) under 4 × CO 2 changes weakly or becomes modestly more polar amplified from the first decade to near-equilibrium. Conversely, the antisymmetric warming component ( ) weakens with time in all models, modestly in some including FAMOUS, but effectively vanishing in others including CESM1. We explore mechanisms underlying the robust behavior with a diffusive moist energy balance model (MEBM), which given radiative feedback parameter ( λ ) and ocean heat uptake ( ) fields diagnosed from CESM1 adequately reproduces the CESM1 and fields. In further MEBM simulations perturbing λ and , is sensitive to their symmetric components only, and more to that of λ . A three-box, two-time-scale model fitted to FAMOUS and CESM1 reveals a curiously short Antarctic fast-response time scale in FAMOUS. In additional CESM1 simulations spanning a broader range of forcings, changes modestly across 2–16 × CO 2 , and in a Pliocene-like simulation is more polar amplified but likewise approximately time invariant. Determining the real-world relevance of these behaviors—which imply that a surprising amount of information about near-equilibrium polar amplification emerges within decades—merits further study. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic HAL Sorbonne Université Journal of Climate 35 20 3157 3172 |