Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services

International audience Ocean net primary production (NPP) results from CO 2 fixation by marine phytoplankton, catalysing the transfer of organic matter and energy to marine ecosystems, supporting most marine food webs, and fisheries production as well as stimulating ocean carbon sequestration. Thus,...

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Published in:Frontiers in Climate
Main Authors: Tagliabue, Alessandro, Kwiatkowski, Lester, Bopp, Laurent, Butenschön, Momme, Cheung, William, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Vialard, Jérôme
Other Authors: School of Environmental Sciences Liverpool, University of Liverpool, Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (LOCEAN-NEMO R&D), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL, Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna (CMCC), Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia Canada (UBC), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - MARBEC (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Océan et variabilité du climat (LOCEAN-VARCLIM)
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: CCSD 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hal.science/hal-03838097
https://hal.science/hal-03838097v1/document
https://hal.science/hal-03838097v1/file/fclim-03-738224.pdf
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.738224
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author Tagliabue, Alessandro
Kwiatkowski, Lester
Bopp, Laurent
Butenschön, Momme
Cheung, William
Lengaigne, Matthieu
Vialard, Jérôme
author2 School of Environmental Sciences Liverpool
University of Liverpool
Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (LOCEAN-NEMO R&D)
Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN)
Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))
École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL)
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)
Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL)
Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))
Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD)
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)
Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL)
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna (CMCC)
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries
University of British Columbia Canada (UBC)
MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - MARBEC (UMR MARBEC)
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)
Océan et variabilité du climat (LOCEAN-VARCLIM)
author_facet Tagliabue, Alessandro
Kwiatkowski, Lester
Bopp, Laurent
Butenschön, Momme
Cheung, William
Lengaigne, Matthieu
Vialard, Jérôme
author_sort Tagliabue, Alessandro
collection HAL Sorbonne Université
container_title Frontiers in Climate
container_volume 3
description International audience Ocean net primary production (NPP) results from CO 2 fixation by marine phytoplankton, catalysing the transfer of organic matter and energy to marine ecosystems, supporting most marine food webs, and fisheries production as well as stimulating ocean carbon sequestration. Thus, alterations to ocean NPP in response to climate change, as quantified by Earth system model experiments conducted as part of the 5th and 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) efforts, are expected to alter key ecosystem services. Despite reductions in inter-model variability since CMIP5, the ocean components of CMIP6 models disagree roughly 2-fold in the magnitude and spatial distribution of NPP in the contemporary era, due to incomplete understanding and insufficient observational constraints. Projections of NPP change in absolute terms show large uncertainty in CMIP6, most notably in the North Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific regions, with the latter explaining over two-thirds of the total inter-model uncertainty. While the Indo-Pacific has previously been identified as a hotspot for climate impacts on biodiversity and fisheries, the increased inter-model variability of NPP projections further exacerbates the uncertainties of climate risks on ocean-dependent human communities. Drivers of uncertainty in NPP changes at regional scales integrate different physical and biogeochemical factors that require more targeted mechanistic assessment in future studies. Globally, inter-model uncertainty in the projected changes in NPP has increased since CMIP5, which amplifies the challenges associated with the management of associated ecosystem services. Notably, this increased regional uncertainty in the projected NPP change in CMIP6 has occurred despite reduced uncertainty in the regional rates of NPP for historical period. Improved constraints on the magnitude of ocean NPP and the mechanistic drivers of its spatial variability would improve confidence in future changes. It is unlikely that the CMIP6 model ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
genre North Atlantic
genre_facet North Atlantic
geographic Pacific
geographic_facet Pacific
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institution Open Polar
language English
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op_doi https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.738224
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doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.738224
op_rights http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
op_source ISSN: 2624-9553
Frontiers in Climate
https://hal.science/hal-03838097
Frontiers in Climate, 2021, 3, ⟨10.3389/fclim.2021.738224⟩
publishDate 2021
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spelling ftsorbonneuniv:oai:HAL:hal-03838097v1 2025-02-16T15:07:39+00:00 Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services Tagliabue, Alessandro Kwiatkowski, Lester Bopp, Laurent Butenschön, Momme Cheung, William Lengaigne, Matthieu Vialard, Jérôme School of Environmental Sciences Liverpool University of Liverpool Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (LOCEAN-NEMO R&D) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna (CMCC) Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries University of British Columbia Canada (UBC) MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - MARBEC (UMR MARBEC) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM) Océan et variabilité du climat (LOCEAN-VARCLIM) 2021-11-25 https://hal.science/hal-03838097 https://hal.science/hal-03838097v1/document https://hal.science/hal-03838097v1/file/fclim-03-738224.pdf https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.738224 en eng CCSD Frontiers Media SA info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/fclim.2021.738224 doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.738224 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2624-9553 Frontiers in Climate https://hal.science/hal-03838097 Frontiers in Climate, 2021, 3, ⟨10.3389/fclim.2021.738224⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftsorbonneuniv https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.738224 2025-01-24T01:46:24Z International audience Ocean net primary production (NPP) results from CO 2 fixation by marine phytoplankton, catalysing the transfer of organic matter and energy to marine ecosystems, supporting most marine food webs, and fisheries production as well as stimulating ocean carbon sequestration. Thus, alterations to ocean NPP in response to climate change, as quantified by Earth system model experiments conducted as part of the 5th and 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) efforts, are expected to alter key ecosystem services. Despite reductions in inter-model variability since CMIP5, the ocean components of CMIP6 models disagree roughly 2-fold in the magnitude and spatial distribution of NPP in the contemporary era, due to incomplete understanding and insufficient observational constraints. Projections of NPP change in absolute terms show large uncertainty in CMIP6, most notably in the North Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific regions, with the latter explaining over two-thirds of the total inter-model uncertainty. While the Indo-Pacific has previously been identified as a hotspot for climate impacts on biodiversity and fisheries, the increased inter-model variability of NPP projections further exacerbates the uncertainties of climate risks on ocean-dependent human communities. Drivers of uncertainty in NPP changes at regional scales integrate different physical and biogeochemical factors that require more targeted mechanistic assessment in future studies. Globally, inter-model uncertainty in the projected changes in NPP has increased since CMIP5, which amplifies the challenges associated with the management of associated ecosystem services. Notably, this increased regional uncertainty in the projected NPP change in CMIP6 has occurred despite reduced uncertainty in the regional rates of NPP for historical period. Improved constraints on the magnitude of ocean NPP and the mechanistic drivers of its spatial variability would improve confidence in future changes. It is unlikely that the CMIP6 model ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic HAL Sorbonne Université Pacific Frontiers in Climate 3
spellingShingle [SDE]Environmental Sciences
Tagliabue, Alessandro
Kwiatkowski, Lester
Bopp, Laurent
Butenschön, Momme
Cheung, William
Lengaigne, Matthieu
Vialard, Jérôme
Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services
title Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services
title_full Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services
title_fullStr Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services
title_full_unstemmed Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services
title_short Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services
title_sort persistent uncertainties in ocean net primary production climate change projections at regional scales raise challenges for assessing impacts on ecosystem services
topic [SDE]Environmental Sciences
topic_facet [SDE]Environmental Sciences
url https://hal.science/hal-03838097
https://hal.science/hal-03838097v1/document
https://hal.science/hal-03838097v1/file/fclim-03-738224.pdf
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.738224