Strong Ursid shower predicted for 2007 December 22
International audience The imminent return of comet 8P/Tuttle is expected to cause Ursid shower outbursts on December 22. There are occasional visual and forward meteor scatter observations of such outbursts from the previous perihelion return of 1994, and the one before that in 1980. In this paper,...
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ftsorbonneuniv:oai:HAL:hal-03732915v1 2024-09-09T19:26:38+00:00 Strong Ursid shower predicted for 2007 December 22 Jenniskens, Peter Lyytinen, Esko Nissinen, Markku Yrjola, I. Vaubaillon, Jérémie Carl Sagan Center, SETI Institute Kehaekukantie 3 B, 00720 Helsinki, Finland MilliLab, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology (SSC) Institut de Mécanique Céleste et de Calcul des Ephémérides (IMCCE) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2007 https://hal.science/hal-03732915 en eng HAL CCSD International Meteor Organization hal-03732915 https://hal.science/hal-03732915 BIBCODE: 2007JIMO.35.125J ISSN: 1016-3115 WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization https://hal.science/hal-03732915 WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization, 2007, 35, pp.125-133 [PHYS.ASTR]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2007 ftsorbonneuniv 2024-07-25T23:47:49Z International audience The imminent return of comet 8P/Tuttle is expected to cause Ursid shower outbursts on December 22. There are occasional visual and forward meteor scatter observations of such outbursts from the previous perihelion return of 1994, and the one before that in 1980. In this paper, we investigated what may cause these outbursts and make predictions on what to expect from dust trails ejected in the period AD 300 - 1400. Younger trails do not contribute to these Filament-type outbursts. Our knowledge of the position of older trails suffers progressively from an uncertain position of the comet in its orbit. The comet passed close to Jupiter's orbit 15 000 years ago, at which time it may have been captured. We find that Jupiter's influence at the ascending node causes some meteoroids to evolve into resonant orbits that move into Earth's path. For 2007, we expect a strong shower with a peak ZHR = 40 - 80 per hour and a duration of FWHM = 2 - 8.5 hours, centered on December 22 at 20.0 h - 22.2 h UT (most likely 21.4 h - 22.2 h UT). Peak rates in 2008 - 2012 will be less. The exact peak time and duration, as well as structure in the shower profile, can identify the age of the stream. To find out, an airborne observing campaign is being prepared that would deploy from NASA Ames Research Center in California and would observe the 2007 December 22 Ursid shower over the Canadian arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic HAL Sorbonne Université Arctic |
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HAL Sorbonne Université |
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ftsorbonneuniv |
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English |
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[PHYS.ASTR]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] |
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[PHYS.ASTR]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] Jenniskens, Peter Lyytinen, Esko Nissinen, Markku Yrjola, I. Vaubaillon, Jérémie Strong Ursid shower predicted for 2007 December 22 |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.ASTR]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] |
description |
International audience The imminent return of comet 8P/Tuttle is expected to cause Ursid shower outbursts on December 22. There are occasional visual and forward meteor scatter observations of such outbursts from the previous perihelion return of 1994, and the one before that in 1980. In this paper, we investigated what may cause these outbursts and make predictions on what to expect from dust trails ejected in the period AD 300 - 1400. Younger trails do not contribute to these Filament-type outbursts. Our knowledge of the position of older trails suffers progressively from an uncertain position of the comet in its orbit. The comet passed close to Jupiter's orbit 15 000 years ago, at which time it may have been captured. We find that Jupiter's influence at the ascending node causes some meteoroids to evolve into resonant orbits that move into Earth's path. For 2007, we expect a strong shower with a peak ZHR = 40 - 80 per hour and a duration of FWHM = 2 - 8.5 hours, centered on December 22 at 20.0 h - 22.2 h UT (most likely 21.4 h - 22.2 h UT). Peak rates in 2008 - 2012 will be less. The exact peak time and duration, as well as structure in the shower profile, can identify the age of the stream. To find out, an airborne observing campaign is being prepared that would deploy from NASA Ames Research Center in California and would observe the 2007 December 22 Ursid shower over the Canadian arctic. |
author2 |
Carl Sagan Center, SETI Institute Kehaekukantie 3 B, 00720 Helsinki, Finland MilliLab, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology (SSC) Institut de Mécanique Céleste et de Calcul des Ephémérides (IMCCE) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jenniskens, Peter Lyytinen, Esko Nissinen, Markku Yrjola, I. Vaubaillon, Jérémie |
author_facet |
Jenniskens, Peter Lyytinen, Esko Nissinen, Markku Yrjola, I. Vaubaillon, Jérémie |
author_sort |
Jenniskens, Peter |
title |
Strong Ursid shower predicted for 2007 December 22 |
title_short |
Strong Ursid shower predicted for 2007 December 22 |
title_full |
Strong Ursid shower predicted for 2007 December 22 |
title_fullStr |
Strong Ursid shower predicted for 2007 December 22 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Strong Ursid shower predicted for 2007 December 22 |
title_sort |
strong ursid shower predicted for 2007 december 22 |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03732915 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1016-3115 WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization https://hal.science/hal-03732915 WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization, 2007, 35, pp.125-133 |
op_relation |
hal-03732915 https://hal.science/hal-03732915 BIBCODE: 2007JIMO.35.125J |
_version_ |
1809896201979428864 |