Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean
International audience Aim: Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity inmarine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marinepredators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. Weexamine relative changes amon...
Published in: | Diversity and Distributions |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2022
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03457309 https://hal.science/hal-03457309/document https://hal.science/hal-03457309/file/ddi.13447.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 |
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ftsorbonneuniv:oai:HAL:hal-03457309v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HAL Sorbonne Université |
op_collection_id |
ftsorbonneuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change distribution marine mammals prediction projection seabirds Southern Ocean [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
climate change distribution marine mammals prediction projection seabirds Southern Ocean [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Reisinger, Ryan R. Corney, Stuart Raymond, Ben Lombard, Amanda Bester, Marthán Crawford, Robert Davies, Delia Bruyn, P. Dilley, Ben Kirkman, Stephen Makhado, Azwianewi Ryan, Peter Schoombie, Stefan Stevens, Kim Tosh, Cheryl Wege, Mia Whitehead, T. Otto Sumner, Michael Wotherspoon, Simon Friedlaender, Ari Cotté, Cédric Hindell, Mark Ropert‐coudert, Yan Pistorius, Pierre Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
topic_facet |
climate change distribution marine mammals prediction projection seabirds Southern Ocean [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience Aim: Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity inmarine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marinepredators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. Weexamine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community-levelchanges and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservationand management.Location: Southern Indian Ocean.Methods: We used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean,totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around thePrince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selectionas a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC-classclimate models. To project the potentialdistribution of the predators in 2071–2100,we used climate model outputs assumingtwo greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.Results: Analogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast andsouthwest. Species’ potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overallshifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, currentspecies co-occurrencepatterns and future projections were statistically similar.Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of nationalwaters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increasein the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area.Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands andincreased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerlyhabitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean managementauthorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts.Main conclusions: Overall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southernIndian Ocean will ... |
author2 |
University of Southampton Institute for Marine Sciences California, USA University of California Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz) University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology University of Tasmania Hobart, Australia (UTAS) Nelson Mandela University Port Elizabeth Department of Zoology and Entomology Pretoria University of Pretoria South Africa Fisheries Research and Development, Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment DST/NRF Centre of Excellence - Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology South Africa Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Agriculture Australia Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050, Australia Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Institute for Coastal and Marine Research and Department of Zoology South Africa |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reisinger, Ryan R. Corney, Stuart Raymond, Ben Lombard, Amanda Bester, Marthán Crawford, Robert Davies, Delia Bruyn, P. Dilley, Ben Kirkman, Stephen Makhado, Azwianewi Ryan, Peter Schoombie, Stefan Stevens, Kim Tosh, Cheryl Wege, Mia Whitehead, T. Otto Sumner, Michael Wotherspoon, Simon Friedlaender, Ari Cotté, Cédric Hindell, Mark Ropert‐coudert, Yan Pistorius, Pierre |
author_facet |
Reisinger, Ryan R. Corney, Stuart Raymond, Ben Lombard, Amanda Bester, Marthán Crawford, Robert Davies, Delia Bruyn, P. Dilley, Ben Kirkman, Stephen Makhado, Azwianewi Ryan, Peter Schoombie, Stefan Stevens, Kim Tosh, Cheryl Wege, Mia Whitehead, T. Otto Sumner, Michael Wotherspoon, Simon Friedlaender, Ari Cotté, Cédric Hindell, Mark Ropert‐coudert, Yan Pistorius, Pierre |
author_sort |
Reisinger, Ryan R. |
title |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_short |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_full |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_sort |
habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern indian ocean |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03457309 https://hal.science/hal-03457309/document https://hal.science/hal-03457309/file/ddi.13447.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 1366-9516 EISSN: 1472-4642 Diversity and Distributions https://hal.science/hal-03457309 Diversity and Distributions, 2022, 28, pp.142-158. ⟨10.1111/ddi.13447⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/ddi.13447 hal-03457309 https://hal.science/hal-03457309 https://hal.science/hal-03457309/document https://hal.science/hal-03457309/file/ddi.13447.pdf doi:10.1111/ddi.13447 WOS: 000723225100001 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
_version_ |
1810492946301059072 |
spelling |
ftsorbonneuniv:oai:HAL:hal-03457309v1 2024-09-15T17:45:12+00:00 Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean Reisinger, Ryan R. Corney, Stuart Raymond, Ben Lombard, Amanda Bester, Marthán Crawford, Robert Davies, Delia Bruyn, P. Dilley, Ben Kirkman, Stephen Makhado, Azwianewi Ryan, Peter Schoombie, Stefan Stevens, Kim Tosh, Cheryl Wege, Mia Whitehead, T. Otto Sumner, Michael Wotherspoon, Simon Friedlaender, Ari Cotté, Cédric Hindell, Mark Ropert‐coudert, Yan Pistorius, Pierre University of Southampton Institute for Marine Sciences California, USA University of California Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz) University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology University of Tasmania Hobart, Australia (UTAS) Nelson Mandela University Port Elizabeth Department of Zoology and Entomology Pretoria University of Pretoria South Africa Fisheries Research and Development, Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment DST/NRF Centre of Excellence - Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology South Africa Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Agriculture Australia Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050, Australia Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Institute for Coastal and Marine Research and Department of Zoology South Africa 2022 https://hal.science/hal-03457309 https://hal.science/hal-03457309/document https://hal.science/hal-03457309/file/ddi.13447.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/ddi.13447 hal-03457309 https://hal.science/hal-03457309 https://hal.science/hal-03457309/document https://hal.science/hal-03457309/file/ddi.13447.pdf doi:10.1111/ddi.13447 WOS: 000723225100001 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1366-9516 EISSN: 1472-4642 Diversity and Distributions https://hal.science/hal-03457309 Diversity and Distributions, 2022, 28, pp.142-158. ⟨10.1111/ddi.13447⟩ climate change distribution marine mammals prediction projection seabirds Southern Ocean [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftsorbonneuniv https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 2024-08-01T23:46:51Z International audience Aim: Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity inmarine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marinepredators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. Weexamine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community-levelchanges and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservationand management.Location: Southern Indian Ocean.Methods: We used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean,totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around thePrince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selectionas a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC-classclimate models. To project the potentialdistribution of the predators in 2071–2100,we used climate model outputs assumingtwo greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.Results: Analogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast andsouthwest. Species’ potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overallshifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, currentspecies co-occurrencepatterns and future projections were statistically similar.Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of nationalwaters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increasein the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area.Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands andincreased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerlyhabitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean managementauthorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts.Main conclusions: Overall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southernIndian Ocean will ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean HAL Sorbonne Université Diversity and Distributions |