Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models
International audience The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal for...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/file/qj.4048.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
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openpolar |
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Open Polar |
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HAL Sorbonne Université |
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ftsorbonneuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
North Atlantic Oscillation polar vortex Quasi-Biennial Oscillation seasonal forecasting stratosphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling teleconnection [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
North Atlantic Oscillation polar vortex Quasi-Biennial Oscillation seasonal forecasting stratosphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling teleconnection [SDE]Environmental Sciences Anstey, James, A Simpson, Isla, R Richter, Jadwiga, H Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley, J Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew, C Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐chieh Chun, Hye‐yeong Garcia, Rolando, R Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐ha Lott, Francois Mclandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy, N Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
topic_facet |
North Atlantic Oscillation polar vortex Quasi-Biennial Oscillation seasonal forecasting stratosphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling teleconnection [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet. |
author2 |
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Aichi University of Education Istituto di Science Marine (ISMAR ) National Research Council of Italy NCAS-Climate Reading Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR) Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter University of Hawai'i Honolulu (UH) Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) Yonsei University NorthWest Research Associates Boulder (NWRA) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt Frankfurt/Main (IAU) Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anstey, James, A Simpson, Isla, R Richter, Jadwiga, H Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley, J Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew, C Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐chieh Chun, Hye‐yeong Garcia, Rolando, R Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐ha Lott, Francois Mclandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy, N Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji |
author_facet |
Anstey, James, A Simpson, Isla, R Richter, Jadwiga, H Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley, J Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew, C Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐chieh Chun, Hye‐yeong Garcia, Rolando, R Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐ha Lott, Francois Mclandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy, N Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji |
author_sort |
Anstey, James, A |
title |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_short |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_full |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_fullStr |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_sort |
teleconnections of the quasi‐biennial oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of qbo‐resolving models |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/file/qj.4048.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 0035-9009 EISSN: 1477-870X Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, ⟨10.1002/qj.4048⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/qj.4048 hal-03266695 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/file/qj.4048.pdf doi:10.1002/qj.4048 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
_version_ |
1810462546242568192 |
spelling |
ftsorbonneuniv:oai:HAL:hal-03266695v1 2024-09-15T18:22:38+00:00 Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models Anstey, James, A Simpson, Isla, R Richter, Jadwiga, H Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley, J Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew, C Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐chieh Chun, Hye‐yeong Garcia, Rolando, R Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐ha Lott, Francois Mclandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy, N Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Aichi University of Education Istituto di Science Marine (ISMAR ) National Research Council of Italy NCAS-Climate Reading Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR) Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter University of Hawai'i Honolulu (UH) Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) Yonsei University NorthWest Research Associates Boulder (NWRA) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt Frankfurt/Main (IAU) Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 2021-06-15 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/file/qj.4048.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/qj.4048 hal-03266695 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/file/qj.4048.pdf doi:10.1002/qj.4048 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0035-9009 EISSN: 1477-870X Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, ⟨10.1002/qj.4048⟩ North Atlantic Oscillation polar vortex Quasi-Biennial Oscillation seasonal forecasting stratosphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling teleconnection [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftsorbonneuniv https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 2024-08-01T23:46:52Z International audience The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation HAL Sorbonne Université Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |