Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations
International audience Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2013
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03048322 https://hal.science/hal-03048322/document https://hal.science/hal-03048322/file/jgrd.50316.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/JGRD.50316 |
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English |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Eyring, V. Arblaster, J. M. Cionni, I. Sedláček, J. Perlwitz, J. Young, P. Bekki, Slimane Bergmann, D. Cameron-Smith, P. Collins, W. Faluvegi, G. Gottschaldt, K.-D. Horowitz, L. W. Kinnison, D. E. Lamarque, J.-F. Marsh, D. R. Saint-Martin, D. Shindell, D. T. Sudo, K. Szopa, S. Watanabe, S. Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring ( 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to 10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections. |
author2 |
DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre = DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IPA) Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile = Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) University of Colorado Boulder -National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) STRATO - LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya Nagoya University Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eyring, V. Arblaster, J. M. Cionni, I. Sedláček, J. Perlwitz, J. Young, P. Bekki, Slimane Bergmann, D. Cameron-Smith, P. Collins, W. Faluvegi, G. Gottschaldt, K.-D. Horowitz, L. W. Kinnison, D. E. Lamarque, J.-F. Marsh, D. R. Saint-Martin, D. Shindell, D. T. Sudo, K. Szopa, S. Watanabe, S. |
author_facet |
Eyring, V. Arblaster, J. M. Cionni, I. Sedláček, J. Perlwitz, J. Young, P. Bekki, Slimane Bergmann, D. Cameron-Smith, P. Collins, W. Faluvegi, G. Gottschaldt, K.-D. Horowitz, L. W. Kinnison, D. E. Lamarque, J.-F. Marsh, D. R. Saint-Martin, D. Shindell, D. T. Sudo, K. Szopa, S. Watanabe, S. |
author_sort |
Eyring, V. |
title |
Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations |
title_short |
Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations |
title_full |
Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations |
title_fullStr |
Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations |
title_sort |
long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in cmip5 simulations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03048322 https://hal.science/hal-03048322/document https://hal.science/hal-03048322/file/jgrd.50316.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/JGRD.50316 |
geographic |
Arctic Austral |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Austral |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal.science/hal-03048322 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013, 118 (10), pp.5029-5060. ⟨10.1002/JGRD.50316⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/JGRD.50316 hal-03048322 https://hal.science/hal-03048322 https://hal.science/hal-03048322/document https://hal.science/hal-03048322/file/jgrd.50316.pdf doi:10.1002/JGRD.50316 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/JGRD.50316 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
118 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
5029 |
op_container_end_page |
5060 |
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1812176594330976256 |
spelling |
ftsorbonneuniv:oai:HAL:hal-03048322v1 2024-10-06T13:42:40+00:00 Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations Eyring, V. Arblaster, J. M. Cionni, I. Sedláček, J. Perlwitz, J. Young, P. Bekki, Slimane Bergmann, D. Cameron-Smith, P. Collins, W. Faluvegi, G. Gottschaldt, K.-D. Horowitz, L. W. Kinnison, D. E. Lamarque, J.-F. Marsh, D. R. Saint-Martin, D. Shindell, D. T. Sudo, K. Szopa, S. Watanabe, S. DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre = DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IPA) Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile = Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) University of Colorado Boulder -National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) STRATO - LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya Nagoya University Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) 2013-05-27 https://hal.science/hal-03048322 https://hal.science/hal-03048322/document https://hal.science/hal-03048322/file/jgrd.50316.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/JGRD.50316 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/JGRD.50316 hal-03048322 https://hal.science/hal-03048322 https://hal.science/hal-03048322/document https://hal.science/hal-03048322/file/jgrd.50316.pdf doi:10.1002/JGRD.50316 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal.science/hal-03048322 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013, 118 (10), pp.5029-5060. ⟨10.1002/JGRD.50316⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2013 ftsorbonneuniv https://doi.org/10.1002/JGRD.50316 2024-09-06T00:03:58Z International audience Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring ( 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to 10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Arctic HAL Sorbonne Université Arctic Austral Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 10 5029 5060 |