Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an AOGCM
International audience The fourth version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation (AOGCM) model developed at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM4) is used to investigate the mechanisms influencing the Arctic freshwater balance in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. The fresh...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2008
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00184733 https://hal.science/hal-00184733/document https://hal.science/hal-00184733/file/manuscript_Arzel_et_al.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5 |
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HAL Sorbonne Université |
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English |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Arzel, Olivier Fichefet, T. Goosse, H. Dufresne, Jean-Louis Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an AOGCM |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience The fourth version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation (AOGCM) model developed at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM4) is used to investigate the mechanisms influencing the Arctic freshwater balance in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. The freshwater influence on the interannual variability of deep winter oceanic convection in the Nordic Seas is also studied on the basis of correlation and regression analyses of detrended variables. The model shows that the Fram Strait outflow, which is an important source of freshwater for the northern North Atlantic, experiences a rapid and strong transition from a weak state toward a relatively strong state during 1990\u20132010. The authors propose that this climate shift is triggered by the retreat of sea ice in the Barents Sea during the late twentieth century. This sea ice reduction initiates a positive feedback in the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system that alters both the atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN)-Barents Seas sector. Around year 2080, the model predicts a second transition threshold beyond which the Fram Strait outflow is restored toward its original weak value. The long-term freshening of the GIN Seas is invoked to explain this rapid transition. It is further found that the mechanism of interannual changes in deep mixing differ fundamentally between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This difference is caused by the dominant influence of freshwater over the twenty-first century. In the GIN Seas, the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater export out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait combined with the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater import from the North Atlantic are shown to have a major influence in driving the interannual variability of the deep convection during the twenty-first century. South of Iceland, the other region of deep water renewal in the model, changes in freshwater import from the North Atlantic constitute the ... |
author2 |
Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître (UCL-ASTR) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arzel, Olivier Fichefet, T. Goosse, H. Dufresne, Jean-Louis |
author_facet |
Arzel, Olivier Fichefet, T. Goosse, H. Dufresne, Jean-Louis |
author_sort |
Arzel, Olivier |
title |
Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an AOGCM |
title_short |
Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an AOGCM |
title_full |
Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an AOGCM |
title_fullStr |
Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an AOGCM |
title_full_unstemmed |
Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an AOGCM |
title_sort |
causes and impacts of changes in the arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an aogcm |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00184733 https://hal.science/hal-00184733/document https://hal.science/hal-00184733/file/manuscript_Arzel_et_al.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Greenland Laplace |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Greenland Laplace |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Fram Strait Greenland Iceland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Fram Strait Greenland Iceland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-00184733 Climate Dynamics, 2008, 30 (1), pp.DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5. ⟨10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5 hal-00184733 https://hal.science/hal-00184733 https://hal.science/hal-00184733/document https://hal.science/hal-00184733/file/manuscript_Arzel_et_al.pdf doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
37 |
op_container_end_page |
58 |
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1801372691178979328 |
spelling |
ftsorbonneuniv:oai:HAL:hal-00184733v1 2024-06-09T07:43:51+00:00 Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an AOGCM Arzel, Olivier Fichefet, T. Goosse, H. Dufresne, Jean-Louis Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître (UCL-ASTR) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) 2008 https://hal.science/hal-00184733 https://hal.science/hal-00184733/document https://hal.science/hal-00184733/file/manuscript_Arzel_et_al.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5 hal-00184733 https://hal.science/hal-00184733 https://hal.science/hal-00184733/document https://hal.science/hal-00184733/file/manuscript_Arzel_et_al.pdf doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-00184733 Climate Dynamics, 2008, 30 (1), pp.DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5. ⟨10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2008 ftsorbonneuniv https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5 2024-05-16T23:59:07Z International audience The fourth version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation (AOGCM) model developed at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM4) is used to investigate the mechanisms influencing the Arctic freshwater balance in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. The freshwater influence on the interannual variability of deep winter oceanic convection in the Nordic Seas is also studied on the basis of correlation and regression analyses of detrended variables. The model shows that the Fram Strait outflow, which is an important source of freshwater for the northern North Atlantic, experiences a rapid and strong transition from a weak state toward a relatively strong state during 1990\u20132010. The authors propose that this climate shift is triggered by the retreat of sea ice in the Barents Sea during the late twentieth century. This sea ice reduction initiates a positive feedback in the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system that alters both the atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN)-Barents Seas sector. Around year 2080, the model predicts a second transition threshold beyond which the Fram Strait outflow is restored toward its original weak value. The long-term freshening of the GIN Seas is invoked to explain this rapid transition. It is further found that the mechanism of interannual changes in deep mixing differ fundamentally between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This difference is caused by the dominant influence of freshwater over the twenty-first century. In the GIN Seas, the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater export out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait combined with the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater import from the North Atlantic are shown to have a major influence in driving the interannual variability of the deep convection during the twenty-first century. South of Iceland, the other region of deep water renewal in the model, changes in freshwater import from the North Atlantic constitute the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Fram Strait Greenland Iceland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice HAL Sorbonne Université Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Greenland Laplace ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) Climate Dynamics 30 1 37 58 |