Table_1_Onset and Decline Rates of Marine Heatwaves: Global Trends, Seasonal Forecasts and Marine Management.DOCX
Changing ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, particularly the increasing severity and frequency of extreme events, are a growing concern for a range of marine sectors. Here we explore the global trends in marine heatwaves (MHWs), specifically onset and decline rates, two metrics wh...
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ftsmithonian:oai:figshare.com:article/17471969 2023-05-15T17:45:44+02:00 Table_1_Onset and Decline Rates of Marine Heatwaves: Global Trends, Seasonal Forecasts and Marine Management.DOCX Claire M. Spillman (11875928) Grant A. Smith (11875931) Alistair J. Hobday (8055032) Jason R. Hartog (11519203) 2021-12-24T04:43:48Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.801217.s001 unknown https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Table_1_Onset_and_Decline_Rates_of_Marine_Heatwaves_Global_Trends_Seasonal_Forecasts_and_Marine_Management_DOCX/17471969 doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.801217.s001 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Climate Science Climate Change Processes Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) Carbon Sequestration Science marine heatwave climate change forecast skill seasonal prediction ACCESS-S preparation window reaction window coping window Dataset 2021 ftsmithonian https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.801217.s001 2022-01-06T11:35:58Z Changing ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, particularly the increasing severity and frequency of extreme events, are a growing concern for a range of marine sectors. Here we explore the global trends in marine heatwaves (MHWs), specifically onset and decline rates, two metrics which describe how quickly a MHW will emerge or disappear from a location. These rates determine the reaction window—the start of a MHW event to peak MHW temperatures—and the coping window—time from peak temperatures to the end of an event—two important time periods relevant to a marine decision-maker. We show that MHW onset and decline rates are fastest in dynamic ocean regions and that overall, the global trend in onset rate is greater than the global trend in decline rate. We map ocean regions where these rates are changing together with forecast skill from a seasonal dynamical model (ACCESS-S). This analysis highlights areas where the length of the preparation window for impending MHWs is increased by using forecasts, and areas where marine decision-makers should be prepared for rapid responses based on realtime observations as MHWs evolve. In regions such as south Africa and Kerguelen, northwest Atlantic, northwest Pacific, southwest South Atlantic and off Australian east coast where rapid median onset and decline rates are observed, there is also a positive trend in onset and decline rates i.e., MHWs are developing and declining more rapidly. This will be a concern for many decision-makers operating in these regions. Dataset Northwest Atlantic Unknown Kerguelen Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
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op_collection_id |
ftsmithonian |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Science Climate Change Processes Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) Carbon Sequestration Science marine heatwave climate change forecast skill seasonal prediction ACCESS-S preparation window reaction window coping window |
spellingShingle |
Climate Science Climate Change Processes Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) Carbon Sequestration Science marine heatwave climate change forecast skill seasonal prediction ACCESS-S preparation window reaction window coping window Claire M. Spillman (11875928) Grant A. Smith (11875931) Alistair J. Hobday (8055032) Jason R. Hartog (11519203) Table_1_Onset and Decline Rates of Marine Heatwaves: Global Trends, Seasonal Forecasts and Marine Management.DOCX |
topic_facet |
Climate Science Climate Change Processes Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) Carbon Sequestration Science marine heatwave climate change forecast skill seasonal prediction ACCESS-S preparation window reaction window coping window |
description |
Changing ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, particularly the increasing severity and frequency of extreme events, are a growing concern for a range of marine sectors. Here we explore the global trends in marine heatwaves (MHWs), specifically onset and decline rates, two metrics which describe how quickly a MHW will emerge or disappear from a location. These rates determine the reaction window—the start of a MHW event to peak MHW temperatures—and the coping window—time from peak temperatures to the end of an event—two important time periods relevant to a marine decision-maker. We show that MHW onset and decline rates are fastest in dynamic ocean regions and that overall, the global trend in onset rate is greater than the global trend in decline rate. We map ocean regions where these rates are changing together with forecast skill from a seasonal dynamical model (ACCESS-S). This analysis highlights areas where the length of the preparation window for impending MHWs is increased by using forecasts, and areas where marine decision-makers should be prepared for rapid responses based on realtime observations as MHWs evolve. In regions such as south Africa and Kerguelen, northwest Atlantic, northwest Pacific, southwest South Atlantic and off Australian east coast where rapid median onset and decline rates are observed, there is also a positive trend in onset and decline rates i.e., MHWs are developing and declining more rapidly. This will be a concern for many decision-makers operating in these regions. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Claire M. Spillman (11875928) Grant A. Smith (11875931) Alistair J. Hobday (8055032) Jason R. Hartog (11519203) |
author_facet |
Claire M. Spillman (11875928) Grant A. Smith (11875931) Alistair J. Hobday (8055032) Jason R. Hartog (11519203) |
author_sort |
Claire M. Spillman (11875928) |
title |
Table_1_Onset and Decline Rates of Marine Heatwaves: Global Trends, Seasonal Forecasts and Marine Management.DOCX |
title_short |
Table_1_Onset and Decline Rates of Marine Heatwaves: Global Trends, Seasonal Forecasts and Marine Management.DOCX |
title_full |
Table_1_Onset and Decline Rates of Marine Heatwaves: Global Trends, Seasonal Forecasts and Marine Management.DOCX |
title_fullStr |
Table_1_Onset and Decline Rates of Marine Heatwaves: Global Trends, Seasonal Forecasts and Marine Management.DOCX |
title_full_unstemmed |
Table_1_Onset and Decline Rates of Marine Heatwaves: Global Trends, Seasonal Forecasts and Marine Management.DOCX |
title_sort |
table_1_onset and decline rates of marine heatwaves: global trends, seasonal forecasts and marine management.docx |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.801217.s001 |
geographic |
Kerguelen Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Kerguelen Pacific |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Table_1_Onset_and_Decline_Rates_of_Marine_Heatwaves_Global_Trends_Seasonal_Forecasts_and_Marine_Management_DOCX/17471969 doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.801217.s001 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.801217.s001 |
_version_ |
1766148972793036800 |