Data_Sheet_2_Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada.pdf
Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through changing fire regimes and/or vegetation dynamics, or...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Dataset |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.679673.s002 |
id |
ftsmithonian:oai:figshare.com:article/16727878 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftsmithonian:oai:figshare.com:article/16727878 2023-05-15T17:46:41+02:00 Data_Sheet_2_Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada.pdf Tatiane Micheletti (8068420) Frances E. C. Stewart (7064558) Steven G. Cumming (8140620) Samuel Haché (552878) Diana Stralberg (195863) Junior A. Tremblay (8981129) Ceres Barros (1654708) Ian M. S. Eddy (8796491) Alex M. Chubaty (11518030) Mathieu Leblond (457233) Rhiannon F. Pankratz (8981123) C. L. Mahon (11518033) Steven L. Van Wilgenburg (8981096) Erin M. Bayne (11518036) Fiona Schmiegelow (2908328) Eliot J. B. McIntire (8140623) 2021-10-04T04:12:17Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.679673.s002 unknown https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Data_Sheet_2_Assessing_Pathways_of_Climate_Change_Effects_in_SpaDES_An_Application_to_Boreal_Landbirds_of_Northwest_Territories_Canada_pdf/16727878 doi:10.3389/fevo.2021.679673.s002 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Evolutionary Biology Ecology Invasive Species Ecology Landscape Ecology Conservation and Biodiversity Behavioural Ecology Community Ecology (excl. Invasive Species Ecology) Ecological Physiology Freshwater Ecology Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl. Marine Ichthyology) Population Ecology Terrestrial Ecology landscape simulation ecological forecasting vegetation fire decision support forest management reproducibility reusability Dataset 2021 ftsmithonian https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.679673.s002 2021-12-20T00:57:37Z Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through changing fire regimes and/or vegetation dynamics, or directly through changes in climatic suitability may allow land managers to address negative trajectories via forest management. We used SpaDES, a novel toolkit built in R that facilitates the implementation of simulation models from different areas of knowledge to develop a simulation experiment for a study area comprising 50 million ha in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our factorial experiment was designed to contrast climate effects pathways on 64 landbird species using climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive models for tree growth and mortality, wildfire, and landbirds. Climate-change effects were predicted to increase suitable habitat for 73% of species, resulting in average net gain of 7.49 million ha across species. We observed higher species turnover in the northeastern, south-central (species loss), and western regions (species gain). Importantly, we found that most of the predicted differences in net area of occupancy across models were attributed to direct climate effects rather than simulated vegetation change, despite a similar relative importance of vegetation and climate variables in landbird models. Even with close to a doubling of annual area burned by 2100, and a 600 kg/ha increase in aboveground tree biomass predicted in this region, differences in landbird net occupancy across models attributed to climate-driven forest growth were very small, likely resulting from differences in the pace of vegetation and climate changes, or vegetation lags. The effect of vegetation lags (i.e., differences from climatic equilibrium) varied across species, resulting in a wide range of changes in landbird distribution, and consequently predicted occupancy, due to climate effects. These findings suggest that hybrid approaches using statistical models and landscape simulation tools could improve wildlife forecasts when future uncoupling of vegetation and climate is anticipated. This study lays some of the methodological groundwork for ecological adaptive management using the new platform SpaDES, which allows for iterative forecasting, mixing of modeling paradigms, and tightening connections between data, parameterization, and simulation. Dataset Northwest Territories Unknown Canada Northwest Territories |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftsmithonian |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Evolutionary Biology Ecology Invasive Species Ecology Landscape Ecology Conservation and Biodiversity Behavioural Ecology Community Ecology (excl. Invasive Species Ecology) Ecological Physiology Freshwater Ecology Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl. Marine Ichthyology) Population Ecology Terrestrial Ecology landscape simulation ecological forecasting vegetation fire decision support forest management reproducibility reusability |
spellingShingle |
Evolutionary Biology Ecology Invasive Species Ecology Landscape Ecology Conservation and Biodiversity Behavioural Ecology Community Ecology (excl. Invasive Species Ecology) Ecological Physiology Freshwater Ecology Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl. Marine Ichthyology) Population Ecology Terrestrial Ecology landscape simulation ecological forecasting vegetation fire decision support forest management reproducibility reusability Tatiane Micheletti (8068420) Frances E. C. Stewart (7064558) Steven G. Cumming (8140620) Samuel Haché (552878) Diana Stralberg (195863) Junior A. Tremblay (8981129) Ceres Barros (1654708) Ian M. S. Eddy (8796491) Alex M. Chubaty (11518030) Mathieu Leblond (457233) Rhiannon F. Pankratz (8981123) C. L. Mahon (11518033) Steven L. Van Wilgenburg (8981096) Erin M. Bayne (11518036) Fiona Schmiegelow (2908328) Eliot J. B. McIntire (8140623) Data_Sheet_2_Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada.pdf |
topic_facet |
Evolutionary Biology Ecology Invasive Species Ecology Landscape Ecology Conservation and Biodiversity Behavioural Ecology Community Ecology (excl. Invasive Species Ecology) Ecological Physiology Freshwater Ecology Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl. Marine Ichthyology) Population Ecology Terrestrial Ecology landscape simulation ecological forecasting vegetation fire decision support forest management reproducibility reusability |
description |
Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through changing fire regimes and/or vegetation dynamics, or directly through changes in climatic suitability may allow land managers to address negative trajectories via forest management. We used SpaDES, a novel toolkit built in R that facilitates the implementation of simulation models from different areas of knowledge to develop a simulation experiment for a study area comprising 50 million ha in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our factorial experiment was designed to contrast climate effects pathways on 64 landbird species using climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive models for tree growth and mortality, wildfire, and landbirds. Climate-change effects were predicted to increase suitable habitat for 73% of species, resulting in average net gain of 7.49 million ha across species. We observed higher species turnover in the northeastern, south-central (species loss), and western regions (species gain). Importantly, we found that most of the predicted differences in net area of occupancy across models were attributed to direct climate effects rather than simulated vegetation change, despite a similar relative importance of vegetation and climate variables in landbird models. Even with close to a doubling of annual area burned by 2100, and a 600 kg/ha increase in aboveground tree biomass predicted in this region, differences in landbird net occupancy across models attributed to climate-driven forest growth were very small, likely resulting from differences in the pace of vegetation and climate changes, or vegetation lags. The effect of vegetation lags (i.e., differences from climatic equilibrium) varied across species, resulting in a wide range of changes in landbird distribution, and consequently predicted occupancy, due to climate effects. These findings suggest that hybrid approaches using statistical models and landscape simulation tools could improve wildlife forecasts when future uncoupling of vegetation and climate is anticipated. This study lays some of the methodological groundwork for ecological adaptive management using the new platform SpaDES, which allows for iterative forecasting, mixing of modeling paradigms, and tightening connections between data, parameterization, and simulation. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Tatiane Micheletti (8068420) Frances E. C. Stewart (7064558) Steven G. Cumming (8140620) Samuel Haché (552878) Diana Stralberg (195863) Junior A. Tremblay (8981129) Ceres Barros (1654708) Ian M. S. Eddy (8796491) Alex M. Chubaty (11518030) Mathieu Leblond (457233) Rhiannon F. Pankratz (8981123) C. L. Mahon (11518033) Steven L. Van Wilgenburg (8981096) Erin M. Bayne (11518036) Fiona Schmiegelow (2908328) Eliot J. B. McIntire (8140623) |
author_facet |
Tatiane Micheletti (8068420) Frances E. C. Stewart (7064558) Steven G. Cumming (8140620) Samuel Haché (552878) Diana Stralberg (195863) Junior A. Tremblay (8981129) Ceres Barros (1654708) Ian M. S. Eddy (8796491) Alex M. Chubaty (11518030) Mathieu Leblond (457233) Rhiannon F. Pankratz (8981123) C. L. Mahon (11518033) Steven L. Van Wilgenburg (8981096) Erin M. Bayne (11518036) Fiona Schmiegelow (2908328) Eliot J. B. McIntire (8140623) |
author_sort |
Tatiane Micheletti (8068420) |
title |
Data_Sheet_2_Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada.pdf |
title_short |
Data_Sheet_2_Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada.pdf |
title_full |
Data_Sheet_2_Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada.pdf |
title_fullStr |
Data_Sheet_2_Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada.pdf |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data_Sheet_2_Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada.pdf |
title_sort |
data_sheet_2_assessing pathways of climate change effects in spades: an application to boreal landbirds of northwest territories canada.pdf |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.679673.s002 |
geographic |
Canada Northwest Territories |
geographic_facet |
Canada Northwest Territories |
genre |
Northwest Territories |
genre_facet |
Northwest Territories |
op_relation |
https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Data_Sheet_2_Assessing_Pathways_of_Climate_Change_Effects_in_SpaDES_An_Application_to_Boreal_Landbirds_of_Northwest_Territories_Canada_pdf/16727878 doi:10.3389/fevo.2021.679673.s002 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.679673.s002 |
_version_ |
1766150473261252608 |