Data_Sheet_3_Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole.pdf
The Indian Ocean Dipole is a leading phenomenon of climate variability in the tropics, which affects the global climate. However, the best lead prediction skill for the Indian Ocean Dipole, until recently, has been limited to ~6 months before the occurrence of the event. Here, we show that multi-yea...
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ftsmithonian:oai:figshare.com:article/16684954 2023-05-15T13:56:33+02:00 Data_Sheet_3_Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole.pdf F. Feba (11484619) Karumuri Ashok (10800888) Matthew Collins (279524) Satish R. Shetye (11484622) 2021-09-27T07:59:47Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759.s003 unknown https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Data_Sheet_3_Emerging_Skill_in_Multi-Year_Prediction_of_the_Indian_Ocean_Dipole_pdf/16684954 doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.736759.s003 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Climate Science Climate Change Processes Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) Carbon Sequestration Science Indian Ocean (Dipole) decadal prediction CanCM4 MIROC5 Southern Ocean IOD and Southern Ocean Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) decadal prediction in tropics Dataset 2021 ftsmithonian https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759.s003 2021-12-20T01:26:52Z The Indian Ocean Dipole is a leading phenomenon of climate variability in the tropics, which affects the global climate. However, the best lead prediction skill for the Indian Ocean Dipole, until recently, has been limited to ~6 months before the occurrence of the event. Here, we show that multi-year prediction has made considerable advancement such that, for the first time, two general circulation models have significant prediction skills for the Indian Ocean Dipole for at least 2 years after initialization. This skill is present despite ENSO having a lead prediction skill of only 1 year. Our analysis of observed/reanalyzed ocean datasets shows that the source of this multi-year predictability lies in sub-surface signals that propagate from the Southern Ocean into the Indian Ocean. Prediction skill for a prominent climate driver like the Indian Ocean Dipole has wide-ranging benefits for climate science and society. Dataset Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Unknown Antarctic Indian Southern Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftsmithonian |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Science Climate Change Processes Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) Carbon Sequestration Science Indian Ocean (Dipole) decadal prediction CanCM4 MIROC5 Southern Ocean IOD and Southern Ocean Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) decadal prediction in tropics |
spellingShingle |
Climate Science Climate Change Processes Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) Carbon Sequestration Science Indian Ocean (Dipole) decadal prediction CanCM4 MIROC5 Southern Ocean IOD and Southern Ocean Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) decadal prediction in tropics F. Feba (11484619) Karumuri Ashok (10800888) Matthew Collins (279524) Satish R. Shetye (11484622) Data_Sheet_3_Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole.pdf |
topic_facet |
Climate Science Climate Change Processes Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) Carbon Sequestration Science Indian Ocean (Dipole) decadal prediction CanCM4 MIROC5 Southern Ocean IOD and Southern Ocean Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) decadal prediction in tropics |
description |
The Indian Ocean Dipole is a leading phenomenon of climate variability in the tropics, which affects the global climate. However, the best lead prediction skill for the Indian Ocean Dipole, until recently, has been limited to ~6 months before the occurrence of the event. Here, we show that multi-year prediction has made considerable advancement such that, for the first time, two general circulation models have significant prediction skills for the Indian Ocean Dipole for at least 2 years after initialization. This skill is present despite ENSO having a lead prediction skill of only 1 year. Our analysis of observed/reanalyzed ocean datasets shows that the source of this multi-year predictability lies in sub-surface signals that propagate from the Southern Ocean into the Indian Ocean. Prediction skill for a prominent climate driver like the Indian Ocean Dipole has wide-ranging benefits for climate science and society. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
F. Feba (11484619) Karumuri Ashok (10800888) Matthew Collins (279524) Satish R. Shetye (11484622) |
author_facet |
F. Feba (11484619) Karumuri Ashok (10800888) Matthew Collins (279524) Satish R. Shetye (11484622) |
author_sort |
F. Feba (11484619) |
title |
Data_Sheet_3_Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole.pdf |
title_short |
Data_Sheet_3_Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole.pdf |
title_full |
Data_Sheet_3_Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole.pdf |
title_fullStr |
Data_Sheet_3_Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole.pdf |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data_Sheet_3_Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole.pdf |
title_sort |
data_sheet_3_emerging skill in multi-year prediction of the indian ocean dipole.pdf |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759.s003 |
geographic |
Antarctic Indian Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Indian Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Data_Sheet_3_Emerging_Skill_in_Multi-Year_Prediction_of_the_Indian_Ocean_Dipole_pdf/16684954 doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.736759.s003 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759.s003 |
_version_ |
1766264050569707520 |