Further investigations of simple “fixed proportion” candidate management procedures for North Atlantic Bluefin tuna using operating model package version 3.3.0.

• Main Authors: Doug Butterworth (10005953), Mitsuyo Miyagawa (10280611), Melissa Jacobs (9711626)
• Format: Report
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Biological Mathematics; Applied Statistics; Biostatistics; management strategy evaluation (MSE); candidate management procedures; operating model; Atlantic bluefin tuna; plausibility; trade-off; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.16627762.v1

Simple constant (intended) proportion CMPs are applied to the 16 conditioned Operating Models in version 3.3.0 of the Package. Ranges of the two control parameters for west and east proportions are selected to give reasonable trade-offs between catch and stock recovery (where needed). For most of the OMs this is readily achieved. However, problems arise for some of the abundance factor B OMs (with lower west stock abundances matching those in the most recent assessment) coupled to an unchanging Beverton-Holt stock-recruitment function for the west stock (recruitment factor 2). For one of these scenarios, even with no catch from the west area, an already depleted west stock decline under catches in the east that are well below present levels, because sufficient bluefin of western origin migrate to the east area and can be harvested there. The key immediate question then becomes whether such OM scenarios are sufficiently plausible that they need to be taken into account in MP selection, though it may be that these instances reflect unreliability in OM conditionings developed under heavy pressure of time.