DataSheet1_Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models.pdf
As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern...
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ftsmithonian:oai:figshare.com:article/15573951 2023-05-15T13:10:33+02:00 DataSheet1_Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models.pdf L. C. Hahn (11304318) K. C. Armour (11304321) M. D. Zelinka (11304324) C. M. Bitz (11304327) A. Donohoe (11304330) 2021-08-20T04:03:27Z https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036.s001 unknown https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet1_Contributions_to_Polar_Amplification_in_CMIP5_and_CMIP6_Models_pdf/15573951 doi:10.3389/feart.2021.710036.s001 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change CMIP6 CMIP5 polar amplification climate feedbacks Arctic Antarctic Dataset 2021 ftsmithonian https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036.s001 2021-12-20T03:56:43Z As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern of surface- and winter-dominated Arctic warming that has outpaced both tropical and Antarctic warming in recent decades. For both CMIP5 and CMIP6, CO 2 quadrupling experiments reveal that the lapse-rate and surface albedo feedbacks contribute most to stronger warming in the Arctic than the tropics or Antarctic. The relative strength of the polar surface albedo feedback in comparison to the lapse-rate feedback is sensitive to the choice of radiative kernel, and the albedo feedback contributes most to intermodel spread in polar warming at both poles. By separately calculating moist and dry atmospheric heat transport, we show that increased poleward moisture transport is another important driver of Arctic amplification and the largest contributor to projected Antarctic warming. Seasonal ocean heat storage and winter-amplified temperature feedbacks contribute most to the winter peak in warming in the Arctic and a weaker winter peak in the Antarctic. In comparison with CMIP5, stronger polar warming in CMIP6 results from a larger surface albedo feedback at both poles, combined with less-negative cloud feedbacks in the Arctic and increased poleward moisture transport in the Antarctic. However, normalizing by the global-mean surface warming yields a similar degree of Arctic amplification and only slightly increased Antarctic amplification in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. Dataset albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Unknown Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftsmithonian |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change CMIP6 CMIP5 polar amplification climate feedbacks Arctic Antarctic |
spellingShingle |
Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change CMIP6 CMIP5 polar amplification climate feedbacks Arctic Antarctic L. C. Hahn (11304318) K. C. Armour (11304321) M. D. Zelinka (11304324) C. M. Bitz (11304327) A. Donohoe (11304330) DataSheet1_Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models.pdf |
topic_facet |
Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change CMIP6 CMIP5 polar amplification climate feedbacks Arctic Antarctic |
description |
As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern of surface- and winter-dominated Arctic warming that has outpaced both tropical and Antarctic warming in recent decades. For both CMIP5 and CMIP6, CO 2 quadrupling experiments reveal that the lapse-rate and surface albedo feedbacks contribute most to stronger warming in the Arctic than the tropics or Antarctic. The relative strength of the polar surface albedo feedback in comparison to the lapse-rate feedback is sensitive to the choice of radiative kernel, and the albedo feedback contributes most to intermodel spread in polar warming at both poles. By separately calculating moist and dry atmospheric heat transport, we show that increased poleward moisture transport is another important driver of Arctic amplification and the largest contributor to projected Antarctic warming. Seasonal ocean heat storage and winter-amplified temperature feedbacks contribute most to the winter peak in warming in the Arctic and a weaker winter peak in the Antarctic. In comparison with CMIP5, stronger polar warming in CMIP6 results from a larger surface albedo feedback at both poles, combined with less-negative cloud feedbacks in the Arctic and increased poleward moisture transport in the Antarctic. However, normalizing by the global-mean surface warming yields a similar degree of Arctic amplification and only slightly increased Antarctic amplification in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
L. C. Hahn (11304318) K. C. Armour (11304321) M. D. Zelinka (11304324) C. M. Bitz (11304327) A. Donohoe (11304330) |
author_facet |
L. C. Hahn (11304318) K. C. Armour (11304321) M. D. Zelinka (11304324) C. M. Bitz (11304327) A. Donohoe (11304330) |
author_sort |
L. C. Hahn (11304318) |
title |
DataSheet1_Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models.pdf |
title_short |
DataSheet1_Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models.pdf |
title_full |
DataSheet1_Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models.pdf |
title_fullStr |
DataSheet1_Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models.pdf |
title_full_unstemmed |
DataSheet1_Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models.pdf |
title_sort |
datasheet1_contributions to polar amplification in cmip5 and cmip6 models.pdf |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036.s001 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet1_Contributions_to_Polar_Amplification_in_CMIP5_and_CMIP6_Models_pdf/15573951 doi:10.3389/feart.2021.710036.s001 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036.s001 |
_version_ |
1766234056441200640 |