Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada
Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 |
id |
ftsmithonian:oai:figshare.com:article/15062738 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftsmithonian:oai:figshare.com:article/15062738 2023-05-15T17:55:29+02:00 Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada Julie Perreault (11192300) Richard Fortier (5470091) John W. Molson (11192303) 2021-07-27T21:20:03Z https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 unknown https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Numerical_modelling_of_permafrost_dynamics_under_climate_change_and_evolving_ground_surface_conditions_application_to_an_instrumented_permafrost_mound_at_Umiujaq_Nunavik_Qu_bec_Canada/15062738 doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Neuroscience Evolutionary Biology Ecology Inorganic Chemistry Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Cryohydrogeology permafrost degradation numerical modelling climate warming surface conditions heat transfer Cryohydrogéologie dégradation du pergélisol modélisation numérique réchauffement climatique conditions de surface transmission de la chaleur Text Journal contribution 2021 ftsmithonian https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 2021-12-20T05:39:26Z Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective-conductive heat transport, phase change and latent heat. Changes in surface conditions which are characteristic of the site were represented empirically in the model by applying spatially- and temporally-variable ground surface temperatures derived from linear regressions between monitored surface and air temperatures. After reaching a transient steady-state condition close to present-day conditions, the simulations were then extended to 2100 under hypothetical climate warming scenarios and using imposed changes in surface conditions consistent with observed on-site evolution. The simulations show that the development of a thermokarst pond and shrubification respectively induce ground warming of up to 0.5°C and 1.5°C, upward migration of the permafrost base by up to 2 and 4 m, and a decrease in the lateral permafrost extent of 1 and 7 m, relative to a reference case without changes in surface conditions. Feedback from permafrost degradation which drives changes in ground surface conditions should be included in future numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper permafrost Thermokarst Umiujaq Nunavik pergélisol Unknown Nunavik Canada Umiujaq ENVELOPE(-76.549,-76.549,56.553,56.553) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftsmithonian |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Neuroscience Evolutionary Biology Ecology Inorganic Chemistry Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Cryohydrogeology permafrost degradation numerical modelling climate warming surface conditions heat transfer Cryohydrogéologie dégradation du pergélisol modélisation numérique réchauffement climatique conditions de surface transmission de la chaleur |
spellingShingle |
Neuroscience Evolutionary Biology Ecology Inorganic Chemistry Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Cryohydrogeology permafrost degradation numerical modelling climate warming surface conditions heat transfer Cryohydrogéologie dégradation du pergélisol modélisation numérique réchauffement climatique conditions de surface transmission de la chaleur Julie Perreault (11192300) Richard Fortier (5470091) John W. Molson (11192303) Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
topic_facet |
Neuroscience Evolutionary Biology Ecology Inorganic Chemistry Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Cryohydrogeology permafrost degradation numerical modelling climate warming surface conditions heat transfer Cryohydrogéologie dégradation du pergélisol modélisation numérique réchauffement climatique conditions de surface transmission de la chaleur |
description |
Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective-conductive heat transport, phase change and latent heat. Changes in surface conditions which are characteristic of the site were represented empirically in the model by applying spatially- and temporally-variable ground surface temperatures derived from linear regressions between monitored surface and air temperatures. After reaching a transient steady-state condition close to present-day conditions, the simulations were then extended to 2100 under hypothetical climate warming scenarios and using imposed changes in surface conditions consistent with observed on-site evolution. The simulations show that the development of a thermokarst pond and shrubification respectively induce ground warming of up to 0.5°C and 1.5°C, upward migration of the permafrost base by up to 2 and 4 m, and a decrease in the lateral permafrost extent of 1 and 7 m, relative to a reference case without changes in surface conditions. Feedback from permafrost degradation which drives changes in ground surface conditions should be included in future numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Julie Perreault (11192300) Richard Fortier (5470091) John W. Molson (11192303) |
author_facet |
Julie Perreault (11192300) Richard Fortier (5470091) John W. Molson (11192303) |
author_sort |
Julie Perreault (11192300) |
title |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_short |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_full |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_fullStr |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_full_unstemmed |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_sort |
numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at umiujaq, nunavik (québec), canada |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-76.549,-76.549,56.553,56.553) |
geographic |
Nunavik Canada Umiujaq |
geographic_facet |
Nunavik Canada Umiujaq |
genre |
permafrost Thermokarst Umiujaq Nunavik pergélisol |
genre_facet |
permafrost Thermokarst Umiujaq Nunavik pergélisol |
op_relation |
https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Numerical_modelling_of_permafrost_dynamics_under_climate_change_and_evolving_ground_surface_conditions_application_to_an_instrumented_permafrost_mound_at_Umiujaq_Nunavik_Qu_bec_Canada/15062738 doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 |
_version_ |
1766163436876595200 |