Overview, Design Concepts and Details (ODD) for NORtPOPsurveillance.nlogo from Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases
The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial...
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ftsmithonian:oai:figshare.com:article/14170444 2023-05-15T18:04:26+02:00 Overview, Design Concepts and Details (ODD) for NORtPOPsurveillance.nlogo from Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases Atle Mysterud (10261963) Hildegunn Viljugrein (10261966) Christer M. Rolandsen (10261969) Aniruddha V. Belsare (10261972) 2021-03-05T13:47:49Z https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14170444.v1 unknown https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Overview_Design_Concepts_and_Details_ODD_for_NORtPOPsurveillance_nlogo_from_Harvest_strategies_for_the_elimination_of_low_prevalence_wildlife_diseases/14170444 doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.14170444.v1 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Ecology chronic wasting disease selective harvesting reindeer Norway adaptive management Text Journal contribution 2021 ftsmithonian https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14170444.v1 2021-03-23T17:21:24Z The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus ) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper Rangifer tarandus Unknown Nordfjella ENVELOPE(11.034,11.034,64.546,64.546) Norway |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftsmithonian |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Ecology chronic wasting disease selective harvesting reindeer Norway adaptive management |
spellingShingle |
Ecology chronic wasting disease selective harvesting reindeer Norway adaptive management Atle Mysterud (10261963) Hildegunn Viljugrein (10261966) Christer M. Rolandsen (10261969) Aniruddha V. Belsare (10261972) Overview, Design Concepts and Details (ODD) for NORtPOPsurveillance.nlogo from Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
topic_facet |
Ecology chronic wasting disease selective harvesting reindeer Norway adaptive management |
description |
The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus ) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Atle Mysterud (10261963) Hildegunn Viljugrein (10261966) Christer M. Rolandsen (10261969) Aniruddha V. Belsare (10261972) |
author_facet |
Atle Mysterud (10261963) Hildegunn Viljugrein (10261966) Christer M. Rolandsen (10261969) Aniruddha V. Belsare (10261972) |
author_sort |
Atle Mysterud (10261963) |
title |
Overview, Design Concepts and Details (ODD) for NORtPOPsurveillance.nlogo from Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_short |
Overview, Design Concepts and Details (ODD) for NORtPOPsurveillance.nlogo from Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_full |
Overview, Design Concepts and Details (ODD) for NORtPOPsurveillance.nlogo from Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_fullStr |
Overview, Design Concepts and Details (ODD) for NORtPOPsurveillance.nlogo from Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_full_unstemmed |
Overview, Design Concepts and Details (ODD) for NORtPOPsurveillance.nlogo from Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_sort |
overview, design concepts and details (odd) for nortpopsurveillance.nlogo from harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14170444.v1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(11.034,11.034,64.546,64.546) |
geographic |
Nordfjella Norway |
geographic_facet |
Nordfjella Norway |
genre |
Rangifer tarandus |
genre_facet |
Rangifer tarandus |
op_relation |
https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Overview_Design_Concepts_and_Details_ODD_for_NORtPOPsurveillance_nlogo_from_Harvest_strategies_for_the_elimination_of_low_prevalence_wildlife_diseases/14170444 doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.14170444.v1 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14170444.v1 |
_version_ |
1766175804980461568 |