Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region
International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emis...
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Language: | English |
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SMHI, Luftmiljö
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Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6153 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021 |
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ftsmhi:oai:DiVA.org:smhi-6153 2023-05-15T14:53:10+02:00 Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region Geels, Camilla Winther, Morten Andersson, Camilla Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka Brandt, Jorgen Frohn, Lise M. Im, Ulas Leung, Wing Christensen, Jesper H. 2021 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6153 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021 eng eng SMHI, Luftmiljö SMHI, Affärsverksamhet Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 1680-7316, 2021, 21:16, s. 12495-12519 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6153 doi:10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021 ISI:000687646900001 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2021 ftsmhi https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021 2022-12-09T10:06:17Z International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SE-CAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-As-Usual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Human health Sea ice SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) Arctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 16 12495 12519 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftsmhi |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Geels, Camilla Winther, Morten Andersson, Camilla Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka Brandt, Jorgen Frohn, Lise M. Im, Ulas Leung, Wing Christensen, Jesper H. Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning |
description |
International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SE-CAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-As-Usual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Geels, Camilla Winther, Morten Andersson, Camilla Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka Brandt, Jorgen Frohn, Lise M. Im, Ulas Leung, Wing Christensen, Jesper H. |
author_facet |
Geels, Camilla Winther, Morten Andersson, Camilla Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka Brandt, Jorgen Frohn, Lise M. Im, Ulas Leung, Wing Christensen, Jesper H. |
author_sort |
Geels, Camilla |
title |
Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region |
title_short |
Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region |
title_full |
Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region |
title_fullStr |
Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region |
title_sort |
projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the nordic region |
publisher |
SMHI, Luftmiljö |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6153 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Human health Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Human health Sea ice |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 1680-7316, 2021, 21:16, s. 12495-12519 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6153 doi:10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021 ISI:000687646900001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
16 |
container_start_page |
12495 |
op_container_end_page |
12519 |
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1766324589228457984 |