Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035
Arctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate...
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SMHI, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre
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ftsmhi:oai:DiVA.org:smhi-6135 2023-05-15T14:32:47+02:00 Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 Docquier, David Koenigk, Torben 2021 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6135 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 eng eng SMHI, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre Communications Earth & Environment, 2021, 2:1, orcid:0000-0002-5720-4253 orcid:0000-0003-2051-743X http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6135 doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 ISI:000674947000001 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Climate Research Klimatforskning Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2021 ftsmhi https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 2022-12-09T10:06:19Z Arctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and select models that best capture the observed Arctic sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport to refine model projections of Arctic sea ice. This model selection leads to lower Arctic sea-ice area and volume relative to the multi-model mean without model selection and summer ice-free conditions could occur as early as around 2035. These results highlight a potential underestimation of future Arctic sea-ice loss when including all CMIP6 models. The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer as early as 2035, according to an analysis of CMIP6 models which selects only the models that best capture observed sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) Arctic Arctic Ocean Communications Earth & Environment 2 1 |
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Open Polar |
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SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) |
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ftsmhi |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate Research Klimatforskning |
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Climate Research Klimatforskning Docquier, David Koenigk, Torben Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
topic_facet |
Climate Research Klimatforskning |
description |
Arctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and select models that best capture the observed Arctic sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport to refine model projections of Arctic sea ice. This model selection leads to lower Arctic sea-ice area and volume relative to the multi-model mean without model selection and summer ice-free conditions could occur as early as around 2035. These results highlight a potential underestimation of future Arctic sea-ice loss when including all CMIP6 models. The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer as early as 2035, according to an analysis of CMIP6 models which selects only the models that best capture observed sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Docquier, David Koenigk, Torben |
author_facet |
Docquier, David Koenigk, Torben |
author_sort |
Docquier, David |
title |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_short |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_full |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_fullStr |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_sort |
observation-based selection of climate models projects arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
publisher |
SMHI, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6135 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
Communications Earth & Environment, 2021, 2:1, orcid:0000-0002-5720-4253 orcid:0000-0003-2051-743X http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6135 doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 ISI:000674947000001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 |
container_title |
Communications Earth & Environment |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766306130996232192 |