Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations
Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs) using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmo...
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Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre
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ftsmhi:oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2009 2023-05-15T14:34:53+02:00 Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations Koenigk, Torben Berg, Peter Doescher, Ralf 2015 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2009 https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v34.24603 eng eng Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre Hydrologi Polar Research, 0800-0395, 2015, 34, http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2009 doi:10.3402/polar.v34.24603 ISI:000350806300001 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Climate Research Klimatforskning Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2015 ftsmhi https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v34.24603 2022-12-09T10:06:06Z Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs) using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA). The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15 degrees K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Polar Research SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) Arctic Arctic Ocean Polar Research 34 1 24603 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftsmhi |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate Research Klimatforskning |
spellingShingle |
Climate Research Klimatforskning Koenigk, Torben Berg, Peter Doescher, Ralf Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations |
topic_facet |
Climate Research Klimatforskning |
description |
Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs) using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA). The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15 degrees K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Koenigk, Torben Berg, Peter Doescher, Ralf |
author_facet |
Koenigk, Torben Berg, Peter Doescher, Ralf |
author_sort |
Koenigk, Torben |
title |
Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations |
title_short |
Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations |
title_full |
Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations |
title_fullStr |
Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations |
title_sort |
arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional cordex simulations |
publisher |
Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2009 https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v34.24603 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Polar Research |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Polar Research |
op_relation |
Polar Research, 0800-0395, 2015, 34, http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2009 doi:10.3402/polar.v34.24603 ISI:000350806300001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v34.24603 |
container_title |
Polar Research |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
24603 |
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1766307824549232640 |