Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?
Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies...
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Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1935 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015 |
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ftsmhi:oai:DiVA.org:smhi-1935 2023-05-15T17:36:23+02:00 Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? Colette, Augustin Andersson, Camilla Baklanov, Alexander Bessagnet, Bertrand Brandt, Jorgen Christensen, Jesper H. Doherty, Ruth Engardt, Magnuz Geels, Camilla Giannakopoulos, Christos Hedegaard, Gitte B. Katragkou, Eleni Langner, Joakim Lei, Hang Manders, Astrid Melas, Dimitris Meleux, Frederik Rouil, Laurence Sofiev, Mikhail Soares, Joana Stevenson, David S. Tombrou-Tzella, Maria Varotsos, Konstantinos V. Young, Paul 2015 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1935 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015 eng eng Luftmiljö Environmental Research Letters, 1748-9326, 2015, 10:8, http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1935 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015 ISI:000366999400016 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2015 ftsmhi https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015 2022-12-09T10:06:06Z Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) Environmental Research Letters 10 8 084015 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftsmhi |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap |
spellingShingle |
Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap Colette, Augustin Andersson, Camilla Baklanov, Alexander Bessagnet, Bertrand Brandt, Jorgen Christensen, Jesper H. Doherty, Ruth Engardt, Magnuz Geels, Camilla Giannakopoulos, Christos Hedegaard, Gitte B. Katragkou, Eleni Langner, Joakim Lei, Hang Manders, Astrid Melas, Dimitris Meleux, Frederik Rouil, Laurence Sofiev, Mikhail Soares, Joana Stevenson, David S. Tombrou-Tzella, Maria Varotsos, Konstantinos V. Young, Paul Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? |
topic_facet |
Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap |
description |
Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Colette, Augustin Andersson, Camilla Baklanov, Alexander Bessagnet, Bertrand Brandt, Jorgen Christensen, Jesper H. Doherty, Ruth Engardt, Magnuz Geels, Camilla Giannakopoulos, Christos Hedegaard, Gitte B. Katragkou, Eleni Langner, Joakim Lei, Hang Manders, Astrid Melas, Dimitris Meleux, Frederik Rouil, Laurence Sofiev, Mikhail Soares, Joana Stevenson, David S. Tombrou-Tzella, Maria Varotsos, Konstantinos V. Young, Paul |
author_facet |
Colette, Augustin Andersson, Camilla Baklanov, Alexander Bessagnet, Bertrand Brandt, Jorgen Christensen, Jesper H. Doherty, Ruth Engardt, Magnuz Geels, Camilla Giannakopoulos, Christos Hedegaard, Gitte B. Katragkou, Eleni Langner, Joakim Lei, Hang Manders, Astrid Melas, Dimitris Meleux, Frederik Rouil, Laurence Sofiev, Mikhail Soares, Joana Stevenson, David S. Tombrou-Tzella, Maria Varotsos, Konstantinos V. Young, Paul |
author_sort |
Colette, Augustin |
title |
Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? |
title_short |
Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? |
title_full |
Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? |
title_fullStr |
Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? |
title_sort |
is the ozone climate penalty robust in europe? |
publisher |
Luftmiljö |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1935 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Environmental Research Letters, 1748-9326, 2015, 10:8, http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1935 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015 ISI:000366999400016 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084015 |
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1766135856443162624 |