Response of Baltic Sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change
The objectives of the present paper are to formulate and explore a coupled sea ice-ocean model and to examine the sensitivity of ice in the Baltic Sea to climate change. The model treats the Baltic Sea as 13 sub-basins with vertical resolution, horizontally coupled by estuarine circulation and verti...
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Oceanografi
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ftsmhi:oai:DiVA.org:smhi-1630 2023-05-15T15:08:13+02:00 Response of Baltic Sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change Omstedt, Anders Nyberg, Leif 1996 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1630 https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00004.x eng eng Oceanografi Forskningsavdelningen Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 0280-6495, 1996, 48:5, s. 644-662 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1630 doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00004.x ISI:A1996VV42600004 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Oceanography Hydrology and Water Resources Oceanografi hydrologi och vattenresurser Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 1996 ftsmhi https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00004.x 2022-12-09T10:06:00Z The objectives of the present paper are to formulate and explore a coupled sea ice-ocean model and to examine the sensitivity of ice in the Baltic Sea to climate change. The model treats the Baltic Sea as 13 sub-basins with vertical resolution, horizontally coupled by estuarine circulation and vertically coupled to a sea ice model which includes both dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The reducing effect on the barotropic exchange due to sea ice in the entrance area is also added. The model was first verified with data from 3 test periods representing one mild, one normal and one severe ice winter. The maximum seasonal ice extent was then examined on the basis of simulated and observed data for the period 1980-1993. After that, some climate scenarios (both warm and cold) were examined. The seasonal, regional and interannual variations of sea ice were well described by the model, and the thermal response in the Baltic Sea can be realistically simulated applying forcing data from rather few stations. The Baltic Sea system is highly sensitive to climate change, particularly during the winter season, Warming may drastically decrease the number of winters classified as severe, forcing the climate towards more oceanic conditions. On the other hand, cooling will increase the number of severe winters, forcing the climate towards more sub-arctic conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) Arctic Tellus A 48 5 644 662 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Vetenskapliga Publikationer (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftsmhi |
language |
English |
topic |
Oceanography Hydrology and Water Resources Oceanografi hydrologi och vattenresurser |
spellingShingle |
Oceanography Hydrology and Water Resources Oceanografi hydrologi och vattenresurser Omstedt, Anders Nyberg, Leif Response of Baltic Sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change |
topic_facet |
Oceanography Hydrology and Water Resources Oceanografi hydrologi och vattenresurser |
description |
The objectives of the present paper are to formulate and explore a coupled sea ice-ocean model and to examine the sensitivity of ice in the Baltic Sea to climate change. The model treats the Baltic Sea as 13 sub-basins with vertical resolution, horizontally coupled by estuarine circulation and vertically coupled to a sea ice model which includes both dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The reducing effect on the barotropic exchange due to sea ice in the entrance area is also added. The model was first verified with data from 3 test periods representing one mild, one normal and one severe ice winter. The maximum seasonal ice extent was then examined on the basis of simulated and observed data for the period 1980-1993. After that, some climate scenarios (both warm and cold) were examined. The seasonal, regional and interannual variations of sea ice were well described by the model, and the thermal response in the Baltic Sea can be realistically simulated applying forcing data from rather few stations. The Baltic Sea system is highly sensitive to climate change, particularly during the winter season, Warming may drastically decrease the number of winters classified as severe, forcing the climate towards more oceanic conditions. On the other hand, cooling will increase the number of severe winters, forcing the climate towards more sub-arctic conditions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Omstedt, Anders Nyberg, Leif |
author_facet |
Omstedt, Anders Nyberg, Leif |
author_sort |
Omstedt, Anders |
title |
Response of Baltic Sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change |
title_short |
Response of Baltic Sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change |
title_full |
Response of Baltic Sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change |
title_fullStr |
Response of Baltic Sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Response of Baltic Sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change |
title_sort |
response of baltic sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change |
publisher |
Oceanografi |
publishDate |
1996 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1630 https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00004.x |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 0280-6495, 1996, 48:5, s. 644-662 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1630 doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00004.x ISI:A1996VV42600004 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00004.x |
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Tellus A |
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48 |
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5 |
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644 |
op_container_end_page |
662 |
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1766339627508039680 |