Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration
Estimating the contribution of demographic parameters to changes in population growth is essential for understanding why populations fluctuate. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a possibility to estimate the contributions of additional demographic parameters, for which no data have been expl...
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ftslunivuppsala:oai:pub.epsilon.slu.se:25857 2023-05-15T15:51:19+02:00 Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration Paquet, Matthieu Knape, Jonas Arlt, Debora Forslund, Pär Pärt, Tomas Flagstad, Oystein Jones, Carl G. Nicoll, Malcolm A. C. Norris, Ken Pemberton, Josephine M. Sand, Håkan Svensson, Linn Tatayah, Vikash Wabakken, Petter Wikenros, Camilla Åkesson, Mikael Low, Matthew 2021 application/pdf https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/25857/ https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/25857/1/paquet_m_et_al_211018.pdf en eng eng https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/25857/1/paquet_m_et_al_211018.pdf Paquet, Matthieu and Knape, Jonas and Arlt, Debora and Forslund, Pär and Pärt, Tomas and Flagstad, Oystein and Jones, Carl G. and Nicoll, Malcolm A. C. and Norris, Ken and Pemberton, Josephine M. and Sand, Håkan and Svensson, Linn and Tatayah, Vikash and Wabakken, Petter and Wikenros, Camilla and Åkesson, Mikael and Low, Matthew (2021). Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 12 , 1899-1910 [Research article] Ecology Research article NonPeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftslunivuppsala 2022-01-09T19:16:47Z Estimating the contribution of demographic parameters to changes in population growth is essential for understanding why populations fluctuate. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a possibility to estimate the contributions of additional demographic parameters, for which no data have been explicitly collected-typically immigration. Such parameters are often subsequently highlighted as important drivers of population growth. Yet, accuracy in estimating their temporal variation, and consequently their contribution to changes in population growth rate, has not been investigated. To quantify the magnitude and cause of potential biases when estimating the contribution of immigration using IPMs, we simulated data (using northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe population estimates) from controlled scenarios to examine potential biases and how they depend on IPM parameterization, formulation of priors, the level of temporal variation in immigration and sample size. We also used empirical data on populations with known rates of immigration: Soay sheep Ovis aries and Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus with zero immigration and grey wolf Canis lupus in Scandinavia with near-zero immigration. IPMs strongly overestimated the contribution of immigration to changes in population growth in scenarios when immigration was simulated with zero temporal variation (proportion of variance attributed to immigration = 63% for the more constrained formulation and real sample size) and in the wild populations, where the true number of immigrants was zero or near-zero (kestrel 19.1%-98.2%, sheep 4.2%-36.1% and wolf 84.0%-99.2%). Although the estimation of the contribution of immigration in the simulation study became more accurate with increasing temporal variation and sample size, it was often not possible to distinguish between an accurate estimation from data with high temporal variation versus an overestimation from data with low temporal variation. Unrealistically, large sample sizes may be required to estimate the contribution of immigration well. To minimize the risk of overestimating the contribution of immigration (or any additional parameter) in IPMs, we recommend to: (a) look for evidence of variation in immigration before investigating its contribution to population growth, (b) simulate and model data for comparison to the real data and (c) use explicit data on immigration when possible. Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU): Epsilon Open Archive |
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Open Polar |
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Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU): Epsilon Open Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftslunivuppsala |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Paquet, Matthieu Knape, Jonas Arlt, Debora Forslund, Pär Pärt, Tomas Flagstad, Oystein Jones, Carl G. Nicoll, Malcolm A. C. Norris, Ken Pemberton, Josephine M. Sand, Håkan Svensson, Linn Tatayah, Vikash Wabakken, Petter Wikenros, Camilla Åkesson, Mikael Low, Matthew Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration |
topic_facet |
Ecology |
description |
Estimating the contribution of demographic parameters to changes in population growth is essential for understanding why populations fluctuate. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a possibility to estimate the contributions of additional demographic parameters, for which no data have been explicitly collected-typically immigration. Such parameters are often subsequently highlighted as important drivers of population growth. Yet, accuracy in estimating their temporal variation, and consequently their contribution to changes in population growth rate, has not been investigated. To quantify the magnitude and cause of potential biases when estimating the contribution of immigration using IPMs, we simulated data (using northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe population estimates) from controlled scenarios to examine potential biases and how they depend on IPM parameterization, formulation of priors, the level of temporal variation in immigration and sample size. We also used empirical data on populations with known rates of immigration: Soay sheep Ovis aries and Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus with zero immigration and grey wolf Canis lupus in Scandinavia with near-zero immigration. IPMs strongly overestimated the contribution of immigration to changes in population growth in scenarios when immigration was simulated with zero temporal variation (proportion of variance attributed to immigration = 63% for the more constrained formulation and real sample size) and in the wild populations, where the true number of immigrants was zero or near-zero (kestrel 19.1%-98.2%, sheep 4.2%-36.1% and wolf 84.0%-99.2%). Although the estimation of the contribution of immigration in the simulation study became more accurate with increasing temporal variation and sample size, it was often not possible to distinguish between an accurate estimation from data with high temporal variation versus an overestimation from data with low temporal variation. Unrealistically, large sample sizes may be required to estimate the contribution of immigration well. To minimize the risk of overestimating the contribution of immigration (or any additional parameter) in IPMs, we recommend to: (a) look for evidence of variation in immigration before investigating its contribution to population growth, (b) simulate and model data for comparison to the real data and (c) use explicit data on immigration when possible. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Paquet, Matthieu Knape, Jonas Arlt, Debora Forslund, Pär Pärt, Tomas Flagstad, Oystein Jones, Carl G. Nicoll, Malcolm A. C. Norris, Ken Pemberton, Josephine M. Sand, Håkan Svensson, Linn Tatayah, Vikash Wabakken, Petter Wikenros, Camilla Åkesson, Mikael Low, Matthew |
author_facet |
Paquet, Matthieu Knape, Jonas Arlt, Debora Forslund, Pär Pärt, Tomas Flagstad, Oystein Jones, Carl G. Nicoll, Malcolm A. C. Norris, Ken Pemberton, Josephine M. Sand, Håkan Svensson, Linn Tatayah, Vikash Wabakken, Petter Wikenros, Camilla Åkesson, Mikael Low, Matthew |
author_sort |
Paquet, Matthieu |
title |
Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration |
title_short |
Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration |
title_full |
Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration |
title_fullStr |
Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration |
title_sort |
integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/25857/ https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/25857/1/paquet_m_et_al_211018.pdf |
genre |
Canis lupus |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus |
op_relation |
https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/25857/1/paquet_m_et_al_211018.pdf Paquet, Matthieu and Knape, Jonas and Arlt, Debora and Forslund, Pär and Pärt, Tomas and Flagstad, Oystein and Jones, Carl G. and Nicoll, Malcolm A. C. and Norris, Ken and Pemberton, Josephine M. and Sand, Håkan and Svensson, Linn and Tatayah, Vikash and Wabakken, Petter and Wikenros, Camilla and Åkesson, Mikael and Low, Matthew (2021). Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 12 , 1899-1910 [Research article] |
_version_ |
1766386492974825472 |