Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring
The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn h...
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ftslunivuppsala:oai:pub.epsilon.slu.se:21273 2023-05-15T15:50:41+02:00 Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz, Andrés de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J. Andrew Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Oystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Broseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas 2020 application/pdf https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/21273/ https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/21273/1/bischof_r_et_al_210119.pdf en eng eng https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/21273/1/bischof_r_et_al_210119.pdf Bischof, Richard and Milleret, Cyril and Dupont, Pierre and Chipperfield, Joseph and Tourani, Mahdieh and Ordiz, Andrés and de Valpine, Perry and Turek, Daniel and Royle, J. Andrew and Gimenez, Olivier and Flagstad, Oystein and Åkesson, Mikael and Svensson, Linn and Broseth, Henrik and Kindberg, Jonas (2020). Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 117 , 30531-30538 [Research article] Ecology Research article NonPeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2020 ftslunivuppsala 2022-01-09T19:15:54Z The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world's largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus Gulo gulo Ursus arctos Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU): Epsilon Open Archive |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU): Epsilon Open Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftslunivuppsala |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz, Andrés de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J. Andrew Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Oystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Broseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
topic_facet |
Ecology |
description |
The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world's largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz, Andrés de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J. Andrew Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Oystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Broseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas |
author_facet |
Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz, Andrés de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J. Andrew Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Oystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Broseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas |
author_sort |
Bischof, Richard |
title |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_short |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_full |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_fullStr |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_sort |
estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/21273/ https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/21273/1/bischof_r_et_al_210119.pdf |
genre |
Canis lupus Gulo gulo Ursus arctos |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus Gulo gulo Ursus arctos |
op_relation |
https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/21273/1/bischof_r_et_al_210119.pdf Bischof, Richard and Milleret, Cyril and Dupont, Pierre and Chipperfield, Joseph and Tourani, Mahdieh and Ordiz, Andrés and de Valpine, Perry and Turek, Daniel and Royle, J. Andrew and Gimenez, Olivier and Flagstad, Oystein and Åkesson, Mikael and Svensson, Linn and Broseth, Henrik and Kindberg, Jonas (2020). Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 117 , 30531-30538 [Research article] |
_version_ |
1766385681160994816 |