A note on analysis of extreme minimum temperatures with the GAMLSS framework

• Main Author: Rydén, Jesper
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Swedish; English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: 10106 Probability Theory and Statistics; Oceanography; Hydrology; Water Resources; Northern Sweden
• Online Access: https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/16566/; https://pub.epsilon.slu.se/16566/1/ryden_j_200220.pdf

Estimation of return levels, based on extreme value distributions, is of importance in the earth and environmental sciences. To incorporate non-stationarity in the modelling, the statistical framework of generalised additive models for location, scale and shape is an option, providing flexibility and with a wide range of distributions implemented. With a large set of selections possible, model choice is an issue. As a case study, we investigate annual minimum temperatures from measurements at a location in northern Sweden. For practical work, it turns out that care must be taken in examining the obtained distributions, not solely relying on information criteria. A simulation study illustrates the findings.