Possible impacts of climate change on the wind energy potential in Búrfell

• Main Author: Birta Kristín Helgadóttir 1988-
• Other Authors: Háskóli Íslands
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: 2014
• Subjects: Umhverfisverkfræði; Loftslagsbreytingar; Vindar; Vindmælingar; Vindorka; Endurnýjanleg orka; Búrfell; Iceland
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/1946/18695

Climate change is expected to cause significant changes in meteorological conditions, such as wind intensity, air temperature, precipitation, and humidity resulting in changed weather conditions and more extreme weather patterns. The main topic of this study was to examine the possible change in climate and its impact on the wind resource in Iceland with main focus on the Búrfell region in the southern Iceland. The study was done in collaboration with the Icelandic Meteorological Office and Landsvirkjun. The study was based on data from a meteorological mast at Búrfell, measuring wind speeds in 10 m height above ground level. Forecasts and historical hind casts for the Búrfell area from a regional climate model, based on simulations from a global climate model were obtained and used to project the possible change in wind speeds, Weibull parameters, and energy density in the area during the 21st century. The results presented in this study showed an increase in extreme winds and a decrease in average wind speeds for the Búrfell area. The energy densities for the projected scenarios were calculated for three time periods, i.e. the whole data set (2050 – 2100), the first part (2050 – 2066) and the latter part (2086 – 2100). The calculated energy densities were 10 – 23% lower compared to the historical data, depending on the time period. Based on these findings, climate change will affect the wind energy potential at Búrfell. However, since the energy densities from the projected scenarios were still within the boundaries that define the highest wind class the area is still considered a viable option for wind power utilization. Talið er að loftslagbreytingar muni hafa mikil áhrif á veðurfarsþætti, s.s. lofthita, úrkomu og rakastig. Breytingar sem þessar geta haft í för með sér breytt veðurskilyrði og aukna tíðni ofsaveðra. Efni þessa verkefnis var að kanna hvaða áhrif loftslagsbreytingar geta haft á vindhraðadreifingu og hugsanlega vindorkunýtingu hérlendis með áherslu á svæðið við Búrfell á suðurhluta Íslands. ...