Bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves: Dynamical downscaling projections
The impacts of oceanic CO2 uptake and global warming on the surface ocean environment have received substantial attention, but few studies have focused on shelf bottom water, despite its importance as habitat for benthic organisms and demersal fisheries such as cod. We used a downscaling Ocean bioge...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2479210 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013231 |
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ftsintef:oai:sintef.brage.unit.no:11250/2479210 2023-05-15T14:57:43+02:00 Bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves: Dynamical downscaling projections Wallhead, Philip Bellerby, Richard Silyakova, Anna Slagstad, Dag Polukhin, Alexander A. 2017-10-25 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2479210 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013231 eng eng Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans. 2017, 122 (10), 8126-8144. urn:issn:2169-9275 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2479210 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013231 cristin:1499879 C 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 8126-8144 122 Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans 10 Journal article Peer reviewed 2017 ftsintef https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013231 2021-08-04T11:59:13Z The impacts of oceanic CO2 uptake and global warming on the surface ocean environment have received substantial attention, but few studies have focused on shelf bottom water, despite its importance as habitat for benthic organisms and demersal fisheries such as cod. We used a downscaling Ocean biogeochemical model to project bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves. A model hindcast produced 14–18 year acidification trends that were largely consistent with observational estimates at stations in the Iceland and Irminger Seas. Projections under SRES A1B scenario revealed a rapid and spatially variable decline in bottom pH by 0.10–0.20 units over 50 years (2.5%–97.5% quantiles) at depths 50–500 m on the Norwegian, Barents, Kara, and East Greenland shelves. Bottom water undersaturation with respect to aragonite occurred over the entire Kara shelf by 2040 and over most of the Barents and East Greenland shelves by 2070. Shelf acidification was predominantly driven by the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2, and was concurrent with warming of 0.1–2.78C over 50 years. These combined perturbations will act as significant multistressors on the Barents and Kara shelves. Future studies should aim to improve the resolution of shelf bottom processes in models, and should consider the Kara Sea and Russian shelves as possible bellwethers of shelf acidification. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic East Greenland Global warming Greenland Iceland Kara Sea SINTEF Open (Brage) Arctic Kara Sea Greenland Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 10 8126 8144 |
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language |
English |
description |
The impacts of oceanic CO2 uptake and global warming on the surface ocean environment have received substantial attention, but few studies have focused on shelf bottom water, despite its importance as habitat for benthic organisms and demersal fisheries such as cod. We used a downscaling Ocean biogeochemical model to project bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves. A model hindcast produced 14–18 year acidification trends that were largely consistent with observational estimates at stations in the Iceland and Irminger Seas. Projections under SRES A1B scenario revealed a rapid and spatially variable decline in bottom pH by 0.10–0.20 units over 50 years (2.5%–97.5% quantiles) at depths 50–500 m on the Norwegian, Barents, Kara, and East Greenland shelves. Bottom water undersaturation with respect to aragonite occurred over the entire Kara shelf by 2040 and over most of the Barents and East Greenland shelves by 2070. Shelf acidification was predominantly driven by the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2, and was concurrent with warming of 0.1–2.78C over 50 years. These combined perturbations will act as significant multistressors on the Barents and Kara shelves. Future studies should aim to improve the resolution of shelf bottom processes in models, and should consider the Kara Sea and Russian shelves as possible bellwethers of shelf acidification. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wallhead, Philip Bellerby, Richard Silyakova, Anna Slagstad, Dag Polukhin, Alexander A. |
spellingShingle |
Wallhead, Philip Bellerby, Richard Silyakova, Anna Slagstad, Dag Polukhin, Alexander A. Bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves: Dynamical downscaling projections |
author_facet |
Wallhead, Philip Bellerby, Richard Silyakova, Anna Slagstad, Dag Polukhin, Alexander A. |
author_sort |
Wallhead, Philip |
title |
Bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves: Dynamical downscaling projections |
title_short |
Bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves: Dynamical downscaling projections |
title_full |
Bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves: Dynamical downscaling projections |
title_fullStr |
Bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves: Dynamical downscaling projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bottom water acidification and warming on the western Eurasian Arctic shelves: Dynamical downscaling projections |
title_sort |
bottom water acidification and warming on the western eurasian arctic shelves: dynamical downscaling projections |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2479210 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013231 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea Greenland |
genre |
Arctic East Greenland Global warming Greenland Iceland Kara Sea |
genre_facet |
Arctic East Greenland Global warming Greenland Iceland Kara Sea |
op_source |
8126-8144 122 Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans 10 |
op_relation |
Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans. 2017, 122 (10), 8126-8144. urn:issn:2169-9275 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2479210 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013231 cristin:1499879 |
op_rights |
C 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013231 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
container_volume |
122 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
8126 |
op_container_end_page |
8144 |
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1766329846279962624 |