Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions
Abstract: Reconstructions of volcanic aerosol radiative forcing are required to understand past climate variability. Currently, reconstructions of pre‐20th century volcanic forcing are derived from sulfate concentrations measured in polar ice cores, mainly using a relationship between the average ic...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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ftsheffhu:oai:shura.shu.ac.uk:28799 2023-05-15T16:38:56+02:00 Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions Marshall, Lauren R. Schmidt, Anja Johnson, Jill S. Mann, Graham W. Lee, Lindsay Rigby, Richard Carslaw, Ken S. 2021-06-28 application/pdf application/vnd.ms-excel https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/1/2020JD033578.pdf https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/9/Lee-UnknownEruptionSource%28Supp1%29.pdf https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/10/Lee-UnknownEruptionSource%28Supp2%29.xlsx https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033578 en eng Wiley http://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD033578 10.1029/2020jd033578 https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/1/2020JD033578.pdf https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/9/Lee-UnknownEruptionSource%28Supp1%29.pdf https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/10/Lee-UnknownEruptionSource%28Supp2%29.xlsx MARSHALL, Lauren R., SCHMIDT, Anja, JOHNSON, Jill S., MANN, Graham W., LEE, Lindsay, RIGBY, Richard and CARSLAW, Ken S. (2021). Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126 (13). doi:10.1029/2020jd033578 cc_by Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftsheffhu https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033578 2023-03-26T20:31:42Z Abstract: Reconstructions of volcanic aerosol radiative forcing are required to understand past climate variability. Currently, reconstructions of pre‐20th century volcanic forcing are derived from sulfate concentrations measured in polar ice cores, mainly using a relationship between the average ice‐sheet sulfate deposition and stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden based on a single explosive eruption—the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Here we estimate volcanic radiative forcings and associated uncertainty ranges from ice‐core sulfate records of eight of the largest bipolar deposition signals in the last 2,500 years using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble of aerosol‐climate model simulations of explosive eruptions. Extensive sampling of different combinations of eruption source parameters using the emulators reveals that a very wide range of eruptions in different seasons with different sulfur dioxide emissions, eruption latitudes, and emission altitudes produce ice‐sheet sulfate deposition consistent with ice‐core records. Consequently, we find a large range in the volcanic forcing that can be directly attributed to the unknown eruption source parameters. We estimate that the uncertainty in volcanic forcing caused by many plausible eruption realizations leads to uncertainties in the global mean surface cooling of around 1°C for the largest unidentified historical eruptions. Our emulators are available online (https://cemac.github.io/volcanic-forcing-deposition) where eruption realizations for given ice‐sheet sulfate depositions can be explored. Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core Ice Sheet SHURA (Sheffield Hallam University Research Archive) Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126 13 |
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Open Polar |
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SHURA (Sheffield Hallam University Research Archive) |
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ftsheffhu |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract: Reconstructions of volcanic aerosol radiative forcing are required to understand past climate variability. Currently, reconstructions of pre‐20th century volcanic forcing are derived from sulfate concentrations measured in polar ice cores, mainly using a relationship between the average ice‐sheet sulfate deposition and stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden based on a single explosive eruption—the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Here we estimate volcanic radiative forcings and associated uncertainty ranges from ice‐core sulfate records of eight of the largest bipolar deposition signals in the last 2,500 years using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble of aerosol‐climate model simulations of explosive eruptions. Extensive sampling of different combinations of eruption source parameters using the emulators reveals that a very wide range of eruptions in different seasons with different sulfur dioxide emissions, eruption latitudes, and emission altitudes produce ice‐sheet sulfate deposition consistent with ice‐core records. Consequently, we find a large range in the volcanic forcing that can be directly attributed to the unknown eruption source parameters. We estimate that the uncertainty in volcanic forcing caused by many plausible eruption realizations leads to uncertainties in the global mean surface cooling of around 1°C for the largest unidentified historical eruptions. Our emulators are available online (https://cemac.github.io/volcanic-forcing-deposition) where eruption realizations for given ice‐sheet sulfate depositions can be explored. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marshall, Lauren R. Schmidt, Anja Johnson, Jill S. Mann, Graham W. Lee, Lindsay Rigby, Richard Carslaw, Ken S. |
spellingShingle |
Marshall, Lauren R. Schmidt, Anja Johnson, Jill S. Mann, Graham W. Lee, Lindsay Rigby, Richard Carslaw, Ken S. Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions |
author_facet |
Marshall, Lauren R. Schmidt, Anja Johnson, Jill S. Mann, Graham W. Lee, Lindsay Rigby, Richard Carslaw, Ken S. |
author_sort |
Marshall, Lauren R. |
title |
Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions |
title_short |
Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions |
title_full |
Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions |
title_fullStr |
Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions |
title_sort |
unknown eruption source parameters cause large uncertainty in historical volcanic radiative forcing reconstructions |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/1/2020JD033578.pdf https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/9/Lee-UnknownEruptionSource%28Supp1%29.pdf https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/10/Lee-UnknownEruptionSource%28Supp2%29.xlsx https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033578 |
genre |
ice core Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
ice core Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD033578 10.1029/2020jd033578 https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/1/2020JD033578.pdf https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/9/Lee-UnknownEruptionSource%28Supp1%29.pdf https://shura.shu.ac.uk/28799/10/Lee-UnknownEruptionSource%28Supp2%29.xlsx MARSHALL, Lauren R., SCHMIDT, Anja, JOHNSON, Jill S., MANN, Graham W., LEE, Lindsay, RIGBY, Richard and CARSLAW, Ken S. (2021). Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126 (13). doi:10.1029/2020jd033578 |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033578 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
126 |
container_issue |
13 |
_version_ |
1766029300476149760 |