GloSea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증
This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of several climate indices that influence on East Asian climate in the GloSea5 hindcast experiment. Such indices include Nino3.4, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), various summer and winter Asian monsoon indices. The models pred...
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한국기상학회
2018
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10371/207191 https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.2.323 |
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ftseoulnuniv:oai:s-space.snu.ac.kr:10371/207191 2024-09-09T19:23:48+00:00 GloSea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증 Assessment of 6-Month Lead Prediction Skill of the GloSea5 Hindcast Experiment 정명일 손석우 최정 강현석 손석우 2018-11-02 https://hdl.handle.net/10371/207191 https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.2.323 한국어 unknown 한국기상학회 대기, Vol.25 No.2, pp.323-337 1598-3560 https://hdl.handle.net/10371/207191 doi:10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.2.323 000422581100011 65319 ART002011051 ARCTIC OSCILLATION SUMMER MONSOON INDIAN-OCEAN EAST-ASIA WINTER PREDICTABILITY PRECIPITATION ENSO TELECONNECTIONS CLIMATOLOGY GloSea5 seasonal prediction climate index Article ART 2018 ftseoulnuniv https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.2.323 2024-08-13T23:46:33Z This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of several climate indices that influence on East Asian climate in the GloSea5 hindcast experiment. Such indices include Nino3.4, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), various summer and winter Asian monsoon indices. The models prediction skill of these indices is evaluated by computing the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS) for ensemble mean values over the period of 1996~2009. In general, climate indices that have low seasonal variability are predicted well. For example, in terms of ACC, Nino3.4 index is predicted well at least 6 months in advance. The IOD index is also well predicted in late summer and autumn. This contrasts with the prediction skill of AO index which shows essentially no skill beyond a few months except in February and August. Both summer and winter Asian monsoon indices are also poorly predicted. An exception is the Western North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) index that exhibits a prediction skill up to 4- to 6-month lead time. However, when MSSS is considered, most climate indices, except Nino3.4 index, show a negligible prediction skill, indicating that conditional bias is significant in the model. These results are only weakly sensitive to the number of ensemble members. N 2 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Seoul National University: S-Space Arctic Indian Pacific Atmosphere 25 2 323 337 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Seoul National University: S-Space |
op_collection_id |
ftseoulnuniv |
language |
unknown |
topic |
ARCTIC OSCILLATION SUMMER MONSOON INDIAN-OCEAN EAST-ASIA WINTER PREDICTABILITY PRECIPITATION ENSO TELECONNECTIONS CLIMATOLOGY GloSea5 seasonal prediction climate index |
spellingShingle |
ARCTIC OSCILLATION SUMMER MONSOON INDIAN-OCEAN EAST-ASIA WINTER PREDICTABILITY PRECIPITATION ENSO TELECONNECTIONS CLIMATOLOGY GloSea5 seasonal prediction climate index 정명일 손석우 최정 강현석 GloSea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증 |
topic_facet |
ARCTIC OSCILLATION SUMMER MONSOON INDIAN-OCEAN EAST-ASIA WINTER PREDICTABILITY PRECIPITATION ENSO TELECONNECTIONS CLIMATOLOGY GloSea5 seasonal prediction climate index |
description |
This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of several climate indices that influence on East Asian climate in the GloSea5 hindcast experiment. Such indices include Nino3.4, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), various summer and winter Asian monsoon indices. The models prediction skill of these indices is evaluated by computing the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS) for ensemble mean values over the period of 1996~2009. In general, climate indices that have low seasonal variability are predicted well. For example, in terms of ACC, Nino3.4 index is predicted well at least 6 months in advance. The IOD index is also well predicted in late summer and autumn. This contrasts with the prediction skill of AO index which shows essentially no skill beyond a few months except in February and August. Both summer and winter Asian monsoon indices are also poorly predicted. An exception is the Western North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) index that exhibits a prediction skill up to 4- to 6-month lead time. However, when MSSS is considered, most climate indices, except Nino3.4 index, show a negligible prediction skill, indicating that conditional bias is significant in the model. These results are only weakly sensitive to the number of ensemble members. N 2 |
author2 |
손석우 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
정명일 손석우 최정 강현석 |
author_facet |
정명일 손석우 최정 강현석 |
author_sort |
정명일 |
title |
GloSea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증 |
title_short |
GloSea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증 |
title_full |
GloSea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증 |
title_fullStr |
GloSea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증 |
title_full_unstemmed |
GloSea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증 |
title_sort |
glosea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증 |
publisher |
한국기상학회 |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10371/207191 https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.2.323 |
geographic |
Arctic Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Indian Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
대기, Vol.25 No.2, pp.323-337 1598-3560 https://hdl.handle.net/10371/207191 doi:10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.2.323 000422581100011 65319 ART002011051 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.2.323 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
323 |
op_container_end_page |
337 |
_version_ |
1809893776629432320 |