Mixture-based path clustering for synthesis of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone evolution
In this article, three tropical cyclones and their 120-h, 50-member ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ensemble track forecasts at 10 initialization times are considered. The IFS forecast tracks are clustered with a regression mixture model, and two traditional diagnostics (the Bayesian infor...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11382/513173 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 |
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ftscssannapisair:oai:www.iris.sssup.it:11382/513173 2024-04-14T08:16:01+00:00 Mixture-based path clustering for synthesis of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone evolution Don, Prabhani Kuruppumullage Evans, Jenni L Kowaleski, Alex M. CHIAROMONTE, FRANCESCA Don, Prabhani Kuruppumullage Evans, Jenni L Chiaromonte, Francesca Kowaleski, Alex M. 2016 http://hdl.handle.net/11382/513173 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000383923300013 volume:144 issue:9 firstpage:3301 lastpage:3320 numberofpages:20 journal:MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW http://hdl.handle.net/11382/513173 doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84986300450 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena Ensemble Geographic location/entity Hurricanes/typhoon Mathematical and statistical technique Models and modeling North Atlantic Ocean North Pacific Ocean Statistical technique Tropical cyclone Atmospheric Science info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2016 ftscssannapisair https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 2024-03-21T17:56:24Z In this article, three tropical cyclones and their 120-h, 50-member ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ensemble track forecasts at 10 initialization times are considered. The IFS forecast tracks are clustered with a regression mixture model, and two traditional diagnostics (the Bayesian information criterion and a measure of strength of cluster assignment) are used to determine the optimal polynomial order and number of clusters to use in the model. In addition, cross-validation versions of the two diagnostics are formulated and computed to further aid in model selection. Both traditional and cross-validation diagnostics suggest that third-order polynomials and five clusters are effective options-although the evidence is less conclusive for the number of clusters than for the polynomial order, and the cross-validation diagnostics favor a smaller number of clusters than the traditional ones. Path clustering of IFS tropical cyclone track forecasts with this third-order polynomial, five-cluster regression mixture model produces interpretable partitions by direction and speed of motion for each of the storms and initialization times considered. Thus, this approach effectively synthesizes the forecast spreads within the IFS into a small number of representative trajectories. Based on how forecasts distribute across clusters, this approach also provides information on the likelihood of each such representative trajectory. If used operationally, this information has the potential to aid forecasters in parsing and quantifying the uncertainty in tropical cyclone track forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Scuola Universitaria Superiore Pisa Sant'Anna: CINECA IRIS Pacific Monthly Weather Review 144 9 3301 3320 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Scuola Universitaria Superiore Pisa Sant'Anna: CINECA IRIS |
op_collection_id |
ftscssannapisair |
language |
English |
topic |
Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena Ensemble Geographic location/entity Hurricanes/typhoon Mathematical and statistical technique Models and modeling North Atlantic Ocean North Pacific Ocean Statistical technique Tropical cyclone Atmospheric Science |
spellingShingle |
Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena Ensemble Geographic location/entity Hurricanes/typhoon Mathematical and statistical technique Models and modeling North Atlantic Ocean North Pacific Ocean Statistical technique Tropical cyclone Atmospheric Science Don, Prabhani Kuruppumullage Evans, Jenni L Kowaleski, Alex M. CHIAROMONTE, FRANCESCA Mixture-based path clustering for synthesis of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone evolution |
topic_facet |
Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena Ensemble Geographic location/entity Hurricanes/typhoon Mathematical and statistical technique Models and modeling North Atlantic Ocean North Pacific Ocean Statistical technique Tropical cyclone Atmospheric Science |
description |
In this article, three tropical cyclones and their 120-h, 50-member ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ensemble track forecasts at 10 initialization times are considered. The IFS forecast tracks are clustered with a regression mixture model, and two traditional diagnostics (the Bayesian information criterion and a measure of strength of cluster assignment) are used to determine the optimal polynomial order and number of clusters to use in the model. In addition, cross-validation versions of the two diagnostics are formulated and computed to further aid in model selection. Both traditional and cross-validation diagnostics suggest that third-order polynomials and five clusters are effective options-although the evidence is less conclusive for the number of clusters than for the polynomial order, and the cross-validation diagnostics favor a smaller number of clusters than the traditional ones. Path clustering of IFS tropical cyclone track forecasts with this third-order polynomial, five-cluster regression mixture model produces interpretable partitions by direction and speed of motion for each of the storms and initialization times considered. Thus, this approach effectively synthesizes the forecast spreads within the IFS into a small number of representative trajectories. Based on how forecasts distribute across clusters, this approach also provides information on the likelihood of each such representative trajectory. If used operationally, this information has the potential to aid forecasters in parsing and quantifying the uncertainty in tropical cyclone track forecasts. |
author2 |
Don, Prabhani Kuruppumullage Evans, Jenni L Chiaromonte, Francesca Kowaleski, Alex M. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Don, Prabhani Kuruppumullage Evans, Jenni L Kowaleski, Alex M. CHIAROMONTE, FRANCESCA |
author_facet |
Don, Prabhani Kuruppumullage Evans, Jenni L Kowaleski, Alex M. CHIAROMONTE, FRANCESCA |
author_sort |
Don, Prabhani Kuruppumullage |
title |
Mixture-based path clustering for synthesis of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone evolution |
title_short |
Mixture-based path clustering for synthesis of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone evolution |
title_full |
Mixture-based path clustering for synthesis of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone evolution |
title_fullStr |
Mixture-based path clustering for synthesis of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone evolution |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mixture-based path clustering for synthesis of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone evolution |
title_sort |
mixture-based path clustering for synthesis of ecmwf ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone evolution |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11382/513173 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000383923300013 volume:144 issue:9 firstpage:3301 lastpage:3320 numberofpages:20 journal:MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW http://hdl.handle.net/11382/513173 doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84986300450 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1 |
container_title |
Monthly Weather Review |
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144 |
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9 |
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3301 |
op_container_end_page |
3320 |
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