Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage
With polar temperatures ∼3–5 °C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (∼125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1–2 °C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local...
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ftrutgersuniv:oai:example.org:rutgers-lib:39294 2023-05-15T16:41:22+02:00 Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage Kopp, Robert E. (author) Simons, Frederik J. (author) Mitrovica, Jerry X. (author) Maloof, Adam C. (author) Oppenheimer, Michael (author) 2009-12-17 31 p. application/pdf http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.1/rucore30119200001.Manuscript.000067302 English eng Macmillan Publishers Limited Kopp, Robert E. rucore30119200001 http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.1/rucore30119200001.Manuscript.000067302 Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. Sea level--Environmental aspects Glacial climates Global warming Global temperature changes Oceanography Ice caps Climatic changes Text Article, Refereed 2009 ftrutgersuniv 2022-05-30T13:45:52Z With polar temperatures ∼3–5 °C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (∼125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1–2 °C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (≥-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr-1 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr-1. Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming. This is a post-print version of an article published in Nature. The published version is available at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7275/full/nature08686.html Peer reviewed Text Ice Sheet RUcore - Rutgers University Community Repository |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
RUcore - Rutgers University Community Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftrutgersuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Sea level--Environmental aspects Glacial climates Global warming Global temperature changes Oceanography Ice caps Climatic changes |
spellingShingle |
Sea level--Environmental aspects Glacial climates Global warming Global temperature changes Oceanography Ice caps Climatic changes Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |
topic_facet |
Sea level--Environmental aspects Glacial climates Global warming Global temperature changes Oceanography Ice caps Climatic changes |
description |
With polar temperatures ∼3–5 °C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (∼125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1–2 °C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (≥-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr-1 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr-1. Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming. This is a post-print version of an article published in Nature. The published version is available at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7275/full/nature08686.html Peer reviewed |
author2 |
Kopp, Robert E. (author) Simons, Frederik J. (author) Mitrovica, Jerry X. (author) Maloof, Adam C. (author) Oppenheimer, Michael (author) |
format |
Text |
title |
Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |
title_short |
Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |
title_full |
Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |
title_sort |
probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |
publisher |
Macmillan Publishers Limited |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.1/rucore30119200001.Manuscript.000067302 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
Kopp, Robert E. rucore30119200001 http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.1/rucore30119200001.Manuscript.000067302 |
op_rights |
Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. |
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1766031799443521536 |