Model construction and information on convergent cross mapping from Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra
Models incorporating seasonality are necessary to fully assess the impact of global warming on Arctic communities. Seasonal migrations are a key component of Arctic food webs that still elude current theories predicting a single community equilibrium. We develop a multi-season model of predator–prey...
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ftroysocietyfig:oai:figshare.com:article/12597321 2023-05-15T14:47:05+02:00 Model construction and information on convergent cross mapping from Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra Chantal Hutchison Frédéric Guichard Pierre Legagneux Gilles Gauthier Joël Bêty Dominique Berteaux Dominique Fauteux Dominique Gravel 2020-07-02T15:07:27Z https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12597321.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Model_construction_and_information_on_convergent_cross_mapping_from_Seasonal_food_webs_with_migrations_multi-season_models_reveal_indirect_species_interactions_in_the_Canadian_Arctic_tundra/12597321 unknown doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.12597321.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Model_construction_and_information_on_convergent_cross_mapping_from_Seasonal_food_webs_with_migrations_multi-season_models_reveal_indirect_species_interactions_in_the_Canadian_Arctic_tundra/12597321 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified multi-season model species interactions causality Arctic ecosystems animal migration tundra Text Journal contribution 2020 ftroysocietyfig https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12597321.v2 2022-01-01T19:28:47Z Models incorporating seasonality are necessary to fully assess the impact of global warming on Arctic communities. Seasonal migrations are a key component of Arctic food webs that still elude current theories predicting a single community equilibrium. We develop a multi-season model of predator–prey dynamics using a hybrid dynamical systems framework applied to a simplified tundra food web (lemming–fox–goose–owl). Hybrid systems models can accommodate multiple equilibria, which is a basic requirement for modelling food webs whose topology changes with season. We demonstrate that our model can generate multi-annual cycling in lemming dynamics, solely from a combined effect of seasonality and state-dependent behaviour. We compare our multi-season model to a static model of the predator–prey community dynamics and study the interactions between species. Interestingly, including seasonality reveals indirect interactions between migrants and residents not captured by the static model. Further, we find that the direction and magnitude of interactions between two species are not necessarily accurate using only summer time-series. Our study demonstrates the need for the development of multi-season models and provides the tools to analyse them. Integrating seasonality in food web modelling is a vital step to improve predictions about the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystems’. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Global warming Tundra The Royal Society: Figshare Arctic Arctic Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The Royal Society: Figshare |
op_collection_id |
ftroysocietyfig |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified multi-season model species interactions causality Arctic ecosystems animal migration tundra |
spellingShingle |
Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified multi-season model species interactions causality Arctic ecosystems animal migration tundra Chantal Hutchison Frédéric Guichard Pierre Legagneux Gilles Gauthier Joël Bêty Dominique Berteaux Dominique Fauteux Dominique Gravel Model construction and information on convergent cross mapping from Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra |
topic_facet |
Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified multi-season model species interactions causality Arctic ecosystems animal migration tundra |
description |
Models incorporating seasonality are necessary to fully assess the impact of global warming on Arctic communities. Seasonal migrations are a key component of Arctic food webs that still elude current theories predicting a single community equilibrium. We develop a multi-season model of predator–prey dynamics using a hybrid dynamical systems framework applied to a simplified tundra food web (lemming–fox–goose–owl). Hybrid systems models can accommodate multiple equilibria, which is a basic requirement for modelling food webs whose topology changes with season. We demonstrate that our model can generate multi-annual cycling in lemming dynamics, solely from a combined effect of seasonality and state-dependent behaviour. We compare our multi-season model to a static model of the predator–prey community dynamics and study the interactions between species. Interestingly, including seasonality reveals indirect interactions between migrants and residents not captured by the static model. Further, we find that the direction and magnitude of interactions between two species are not necessarily accurate using only summer time-series. Our study demonstrates the need for the development of multi-season models and provides the tools to analyse them. Integrating seasonality in food web modelling is a vital step to improve predictions about the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystems’. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chantal Hutchison Frédéric Guichard Pierre Legagneux Gilles Gauthier Joël Bêty Dominique Berteaux Dominique Fauteux Dominique Gravel |
author_facet |
Chantal Hutchison Frédéric Guichard Pierre Legagneux Gilles Gauthier Joël Bêty Dominique Berteaux Dominique Fauteux Dominique Gravel |
author_sort |
Chantal Hutchison |
title |
Model construction and information on convergent cross mapping from Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra |
title_short |
Model construction and information on convergent cross mapping from Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra |
title_full |
Model construction and information on convergent cross mapping from Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra |
title_fullStr |
Model construction and information on convergent cross mapping from Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra |
title_full_unstemmed |
Model construction and information on convergent cross mapping from Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra |
title_sort |
model construction and information on convergent cross mapping from seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the canadian arctic tundra |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12597321.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Model_construction_and_information_on_convergent_cross_mapping_from_Seasonal_food_webs_with_migrations_multi-season_models_reveal_indirect_species_interactions_in_the_Canadian_Arctic_tundra/12597321 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Global warming Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Global warming Tundra |
op_relation |
doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.12597321.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Model_construction_and_information_on_convergent_cross_mapping_from_Seasonal_food_webs_with_migrations_multi-season_models_reveal_indirect_species_interactions_in_the_Canadian_Arctic_tundra/12597321 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12597321.v2 |
_version_ |
1766318211097165824 |