Results from Viterbi algorithm in E-SURGE from High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese
Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects . Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been dire...
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ftroysocietyfig:oai:figshare.com:article/12017805 2023-05-15T14:53:32+02:00 Results from Viterbi algorithm in E-SURGE from High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese Mari Aas Fjelldal Kate Layton-Matthews Aline Magdalena Lee Vidar Grøtan Maarten J. J. E. Loonen Brage Bremset Hansen 2020-03-23T09:01:18Z https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12017805.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Results_from_Viterbi_algorithm_in_E-SURGE_from_High-Arctic_family_planning_earlier_spring_onset_advances_age_at_first_reproduction_in_barnacle_geese/12017805 unknown doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.12017805.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Results_from_Viterbi_algorithm_in_E-SURGE_from_High-Arctic_family_planning_earlier_spring_onset_advances_age_at_first_reproduction_in_barnacle_geese/12017805 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Ecology population ecology age at first reproduction arctic climate change multi-event state uncertainty Text Journal contribution 2020 ftroysocietyfig https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12017805.v2 2022-01-01T19:32:31Z Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects . Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change . Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in High-Arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in AFR in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis . Using long-term mark–recapture and reproductive data (1991–2017) , we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual AFR (i.e. when goslings are produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for 2 year old, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset (SO) positively influenced the probability of reproducing and even more strongly the probability of reproducing for the first time. Thus, because climate warming has advanced SO by two weeks, this likely led to an earlier AFR by more than doubling the probability of reproducing at 2 years of age. This may, in turn, impact important life-history trade-offs and long-term population trajectories. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard The Royal Society: Figshare Arctic Svalbard |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The Royal Society: Figshare |
op_collection_id |
ftroysocietyfig |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Ecology population ecology age at first reproduction arctic climate change multi-event state uncertainty |
spellingShingle |
Ecology population ecology age at first reproduction arctic climate change multi-event state uncertainty Mari Aas Fjelldal Kate Layton-Matthews Aline Magdalena Lee Vidar Grøtan Maarten J. J. E. Loonen Brage Bremset Hansen Results from Viterbi algorithm in E-SURGE from High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
topic_facet |
Ecology population ecology age at first reproduction arctic climate change multi-event state uncertainty |
description |
Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects . Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change . Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in High-Arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in AFR in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis . Using long-term mark–recapture and reproductive data (1991–2017) , we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual AFR (i.e. when goslings are produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for 2 year old, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset (SO) positively influenced the probability of reproducing and even more strongly the probability of reproducing for the first time. Thus, because climate warming has advanced SO by two weeks, this likely led to an earlier AFR by more than doubling the probability of reproducing at 2 years of age. This may, in turn, impact important life-history trade-offs and long-term population trajectories. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mari Aas Fjelldal Kate Layton-Matthews Aline Magdalena Lee Vidar Grøtan Maarten J. J. E. Loonen Brage Bremset Hansen |
author_facet |
Mari Aas Fjelldal Kate Layton-Matthews Aline Magdalena Lee Vidar Grøtan Maarten J. J. E. Loonen Brage Bremset Hansen |
author_sort |
Mari Aas Fjelldal |
title |
Results from Viterbi algorithm in E-SURGE from High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_short |
Results from Viterbi algorithm in E-SURGE from High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_full |
Results from Viterbi algorithm in E-SURGE from High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_fullStr |
Results from Viterbi algorithm in E-SURGE from High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_full_unstemmed |
Results from Viterbi algorithm in E-SURGE from High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_sort |
results from viterbi algorithm in e-surge from high-arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12017805.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Results_from_Viterbi_algorithm_in_E-SURGE_from_High-Arctic_family_planning_earlier_spring_onset_advances_age_at_first_reproduction_in_barnacle_geese/12017805 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
op_relation |
doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.12017805.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Results_from_Viterbi_algorithm_in_E-SURGE_from_High-Arctic_family_planning_earlier_spring_onset_advances_age_at_first_reproduction_in_barnacle_geese/12017805 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12017805.v2 |
_version_ |
1766325125975638016 |