Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests
Spatial synchrony, the tendency of distant populations to fluctuate similarly, is a major concern in ecology1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Except in special circumstances3,9, researchers historically had difficulty identifying drivers of synchrony in field systems5,6,10. Perhaps for this reason, the possibility9,...
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2016
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Online Access: | https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/8v140/changes-in-large-scale-climate-alter-spatial-synchrony-of-aphid-pests https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2881 |
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ftrothamstedres:oai:repository.rothamsted.ac.uk:8v140 2023-05-15T17:33:37+02:00 Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests Sheppard, L. W. Bell, J. R. Harrington, R. Reuman, D. C. 2016 https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/8v140/changes-in-large-scale-climate-alter-spatial-synchrony-of-aphid-pests https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2881 unknown Springer Nature Nature Publishing Group https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2881 Sheppard, L. W., Bell, J. R., Harrington, R. and Reuman, D. C. 2016. Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests. Nature Climate Change. 6, pp. 610-613. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2881 Publisher copyright Phenology Population dynamics journal-article 2016 ftrothamstedres https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2881 2022-08-09T17:32:51Z Spatial synchrony, the tendency of distant populations to fluctuate similarly, is a major concern in ecology1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Except in special circumstances3,9, researchers historically had difficulty identifying drivers of synchrony in field systems5,6,10. Perhaps for this reason, the possibility9,11,12 that changes in large-scale climatic drivers may modify synchrony, thereby impacting ecosystems and human concerns, has been little examined. Here, we use wavelets to determine environmental drivers of phenological synchrony across Britain for 20 aphid species, most major crop pests. Consistently across species, changes in drivers produced large changes in aphid synchrony. Different drivers acted on different timescales: using a new wavelet analogue of the Moran theorem1, we show that on long timescales (>4 years), 80% of synchrony in aphid first flights is due to synchrony in winter climate; but this explanation accounts for less short-timescale (≤4 years) synchrony. Changes in aphid synchrony over time also differed by timescale: long-timescale synchrony fell from before 1993 to after, caused by similar changes in winter climate; whereas short-timescale synchrony increased. Shifts in winter climate are attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation, an important climatic phenomenon7,11,13, so effects described here may influence other taxa. This study documents a new way that climatic changes influence populations, through altered Moran effects. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Rothamsted Repository (Rothamsted Research) Nature Climate Change 6 6 610 613 |
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Open Polar |
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Rothamsted Repository (Rothamsted Research) |
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ftrothamstedres |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Phenology Population dynamics |
spellingShingle |
Phenology Population dynamics Sheppard, L. W. Bell, J. R. Harrington, R. Reuman, D. C. Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests |
topic_facet |
Phenology Population dynamics |
description |
Spatial synchrony, the tendency of distant populations to fluctuate similarly, is a major concern in ecology1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Except in special circumstances3,9, researchers historically had difficulty identifying drivers of synchrony in field systems5,6,10. Perhaps for this reason, the possibility9,11,12 that changes in large-scale climatic drivers may modify synchrony, thereby impacting ecosystems and human concerns, has been little examined. Here, we use wavelets to determine environmental drivers of phenological synchrony across Britain for 20 aphid species, most major crop pests. Consistently across species, changes in drivers produced large changes in aphid synchrony. Different drivers acted on different timescales: using a new wavelet analogue of the Moran theorem1, we show that on long timescales (>4 years), 80% of synchrony in aphid first flights is due to synchrony in winter climate; but this explanation accounts for less short-timescale (≤4 years) synchrony. Changes in aphid synchrony over time also differed by timescale: long-timescale synchrony fell from before 1993 to after, caused by similar changes in winter climate; whereas short-timescale synchrony increased. Shifts in winter climate are attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation, an important climatic phenomenon7,11,13, so effects described here may influence other taxa. This study documents a new way that climatic changes influence populations, through altered Moran effects. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Sheppard, L. W. Bell, J. R. Harrington, R. Reuman, D. C. |
author_facet |
Sheppard, L. W. Bell, J. R. Harrington, R. Reuman, D. C. |
author_sort |
Sheppard, L. W. |
title |
Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests |
title_short |
Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests |
title_full |
Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests |
title_fullStr |
Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests |
title_sort |
changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/8v140/changes-in-large-scale-climate-alter-spatial-synchrony-of-aphid-pests https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2881 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2881 Sheppard, L. W., Bell, J. R., Harrington, R. and Reuman, D. C. 2016. Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests. Nature Climate Change. 6, pp. 610-613. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2881 |
op_rights |
Publisher copyright |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2881 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
610 |
op_container_end_page |
613 |
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1766132187747319808 |