God did not save the kings: Environmental consequences of the 1982 Falklands War

• Main Authors: Panel, Sophie, Pietri, Antoine
• Other Authors: Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier (CEE-M), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: Ecological warfare; Falklands War; King penguins; JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C2 - Single Equation Models • Single Variables/C.C2.C22 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes; JEL: F - International Economics/F.F5 - International Relations; National Security; and International Political Economy/F.F5.F51 - International Conflicts • Negotiations • Sanctions; JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q57 - Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services • Biodiversity Conservation • Bioeconomics • Industrial Ecology; [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance; [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; Antarctic; Antarc*; King Penguins
• Online Access: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03009238; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03009238/document; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03009238/file/WP%202020-17%20%281%29.pdf

Warfare has been found to have detrimental impacts on biodiversity due to its long-lasting economic and social consequences. Yet, much less is known about the amount of biodiversity loss directly resulting from the use of military technology. This paper analyzes the environmental consequences of one of the largest aerial and naval conflicts of the late 20st century, namely the 1982 Falklands War. As an indicator of the marine ecosystem status, we analyze population trends of king penguins breeding on the Falkland Islands over the period 1963-1997. Using interrupted time series analysis, we find that the war significantly slowed the growth rate of king penguins' population. To take better account of time-varying confounders, we complement this analysis using a synthetic control group based on data from other Sub-Antarctic colonies and find similar results. .