Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems
Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1911/113800 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999 |
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ftriceuniv:oai:scholarship.rice.edu:1911/113800 2023-05-15T17:50:03+02:00 Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems Lawman, A.E. Dee, S.G. DeLong, K.L. Correa, A.M.S. 2022 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1911/113800 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999 eng eng Wiley Lawman, A.E., Dee, S.G., DeLong, K.L., et al. "Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems." JGR Biogeosciences, 127, no. 9 (2022) Wiley: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999. https://hdl.handle.net/1911/113800 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999 Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. Journal article Text publisher version 2022 ftriceuniv https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999 2022-11-05T23:30:32Z Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since the 1970s; relatively few coral reefs still exhibit a mean live coral cover of >10%. Additional work is needed to characterize future climate stressors on coral reefs in the GoM and the Caribbean Sea. Here, we use climate model simulations spanning the period of 2015–2100 to partition and assess the individual impacts of climate stressors on corals in the GoM and the western Caribbean Sea. We use a top-down modeling framework to diagnose future projected changes in thermal stress and ocean acidification and discuss its implications for coral reef ecosystems. We find that ocean temperatures increase by 2°C–3°C over the 21st century, and surpass reported regional bleaching thresholds by mid-century. Whereas ocean acidification occurs, the rate and magnitude of temperature changes outpace and outweigh the impacts of changes in aragonite saturation state. A framework for quantifying and communicating future risks in the GoM and Caribbean using reef risk projection maps is discussed. Without substantial mitigation efforts, the combined impact of increasing ocean temperatures and acidification are likely to stress most existing corals in the GoM and the Caribbean, with widespread economic and ecological consequences. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification Rice University: Digital Scholarship Archive Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 127 9 |
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Rice University: Digital Scholarship Archive |
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language |
English |
description |
Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since the 1970s; relatively few coral reefs still exhibit a mean live coral cover of >10%. Additional work is needed to characterize future climate stressors on coral reefs in the GoM and the Caribbean Sea. Here, we use climate model simulations spanning the period of 2015–2100 to partition and assess the individual impacts of climate stressors on corals in the GoM and the western Caribbean Sea. We use a top-down modeling framework to diagnose future projected changes in thermal stress and ocean acidification and discuss its implications for coral reef ecosystems. We find that ocean temperatures increase by 2°C–3°C over the 21st century, and surpass reported regional bleaching thresholds by mid-century. Whereas ocean acidification occurs, the rate and magnitude of temperature changes outpace and outweigh the impacts of changes in aragonite saturation state. A framework for quantifying and communicating future risks in the GoM and Caribbean using reef risk projection maps is discussed. Without substantial mitigation efforts, the combined impact of increasing ocean temperatures and acidification are likely to stress most existing corals in the GoM and the Caribbean, with widespread economic and ecological consequences. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lawman, A.E. Dee, S.G. DeLong, K.L. Correa, A.M.S. |
spellingShingle |
Lawman, A.E. Dee, S.G. DeLong, K.L. Correa, A.M.S. Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems |
author_facet |
Lawman, A.E. Dee, S.G. DeLong, K.L. Correa, A.M.S. |
author_sort |
Lawman, A.E. |
title |
Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems |
title_short |
Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems |
title_full |
Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems |
title_fullStr |
Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems |
title_sort |
rates of future climate change in the gulf of mexico and the caribbean sea: implications for coral reef ecosystems |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1911/113800 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
Lawman, A.E., Dee, S.G., DeLong, K.L., et al. "Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems." JGR Biogeosciences, 127, no. 9 (2022) Wiley: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999. https://hdl.handle.net/1911/113800 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999 |
op_rights |
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
127 |
container_issue |
9 |
_version_ |
1766156639616892928 |