May the NAO index be used to forecast rain in Spain?

• Main Authors: Castro, A., Vidal, M. I., Calvo, A. I., Fernández-Raga, M., Fraile, R.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico 2011
• Subjects: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Precipitation; Forecasting; Spain; Ebro Valley; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10773/28038

This paper studies the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation regimes in continental Spain. The data used for this study include the monthly rain series of 325 meteorological stations distributed homogeneously over the study zone, and the monthly NAO indices from 1961 to 1998. A total of 5525 rain series were employed for the analysis. Simple and multiple linear correlations were established between these variables in different combinations. The main aim was to check whether monthly, seasonal or annual precipitation data could be predicted using earlier precipitation data and the NAO index. The geographical areas where the stations have shown a statistically significant correlation have been represented on maps. The results differ depending on the correlation, but, in general, the best results have been found in the fall and winter months. Finally, a practical application of the method was carried out in the Ebro Valley and it was observed that the combination of the NAO index for spring and summer and the precipitation registered in those two seasons may be useful to forecast rain in the fall. Este trabajo estudia la influencia de la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO) en el régimen de precipitaciones mensuales, estacionales y anuales de la España Peninsular. Para ello se han utilizado los datos mensuales de precipitación de 325 estaciones pluviométricas repartidas homogéneamente y los índices mensuales del índice NAO desde 1961 a 1998; se han usado un total de 5525 series de precipitación. El estudio se ha realizado mediante correlaciones lineales simples o múltiples entre estas variables utilizando diferentes combinaciones. Se trata de ver si se podría predecir la precipitación mensual, estacional o bien anual a partir de datos previos de precipitación y del índice NAO. Se han representado espacialmente las zonas geográficas cuyos observatorios manifiestan una correlación estadísticamente significativa. Los resultados difieren del tipo de correlación ...