The characteristics and trends of rainfall on sub-Antarctic Marion Island and associated air circulation patterns

• Main Author: Mapuka, Fortunate Nomsa
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: University of Fort Hare 2020
• Subjects: Antarctic; Southern Ocean; Antarc*; Marion Island
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/18698; https://corycommons.ru.ac.za/vital/access/manager/Repository/vital:42725

Marion Island (46°54ʹS, 37°45ʹE) located in the Southern Ocean possesses one of the most oceanic climates on earth and sensitive to climate change. Climatologically, the sub-Antarctic is inadequately represented in the climate literature and this research therefore attempts to establish the recent changes that have occurred on Marion Island with regards to annual rainfall totals, monthly rainfall, rain days and non-rain days during the period from 1980 to 2018. This study found that annual rainfall has decreased by 24% from 2196.7 mm to 1678.57 mm from 1980 to 2018 and that the last decade (2010-2018) is the driest on record. The decrease in annual rainfall on Marion Island can be directly linked to the decreases recorded in monthly and daily rainfall. Rainfall in autumn has reduced by 35% over the last 40 years and the decrease in autumn rainfall is in part directly related to an increase in anticyclonic air circulation during which Marion Island is not influenced by any mid-latitudinal depressions. The frequency of rain days measured on Marion Island significantly decreased. Daily rainfall measuring less than 5 mm of rain a day contribute 50% of the total number of rain days. However, these high frequency low depth rainfall days contribute very little rainfall to annual totals. On Marion Island rain days that measure 10 mm and above contribute 65% of the total annual rainfall and it is also these type of high magnitude rain days that have significantly decreased since 1980. Multi-day consecutive rain events contribute the greatest proportion of rainfall to the annual rainfall totals (~40%). Linear statistics shows that the contribution to rainfall amount from these multi-day rainfall has halved since 1980. The frequency of non-rain days and consecutive non-rain days have significantly increased. The increased frequency of anticyclonic air circulation over Marion Island and the decrease of the traveling low-pressure systems affecting Marion Island are the probable cause of the increase in non-rain days. It is ...