The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics
In this conceptual article with illustrative data, we suggest that it is useful to rank island nations as potential refuges for ensuring long‐term human survival in the face of catastrophic pandemics (or other relevant existential threats). Prioritization could identify the several island nations th...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13398 |
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:2:p:227-239 2023-05-15T16:51:30+02:00 The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics Matt Boyd Nick Wilson https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13398 unknown https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13398 article ftrepec https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13398 2020-12-04T13:31:40Z In this conceptual article with illustrative data, we suggest that it is useful to rank island nations as potential refuges for ensuring long‐term human survival in the face of catastrophic pandemics (or other relevant existential threats). Prioritization could identify the several island nations that are most suitable for targeting social and political preparations and further investment in resiliency. We outline a prioritization methodology and as an initial demonstration, we then provide example rankings by considering 20 sovereign island states (all with populations greater than 250,000 and no land borders). Results describe each nation in nine resilience‐relevant domains covering location, population, resources, and society according to published data. The results indicate that the most suitable island nations for refuge status are Australia, followed closely by New Zealand, and then Iceland, with other nations all well behind (including the relatively high‐income ones of Malta and Japan). Nevertheless, some key contextual factors remain relatively unexplored. These include the capacity of the jurisdiction to rapidly close its borders when the emerging threat was first detected elsewhere, and whether or not large subnational islands should be the preferred focus for refuge design (e.g., the Australian state of Tasmania, the island of Hokkaido in Japan, or the South Island of New Zealand). Overall, this work provides conceptual thinking with some initial example analysis. Further research could refine the selection of metrics, how best to weight the relevant domains, and how the populations of prioritized island nations view their nation's selection as a potential refuge for human survival. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) New Zealand Risk Analysis 40 2 227 239 |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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In this conceptual article with illustrative data, we suggest that it is useful to rank island nations as potential refuges for ensuring long‐term human survival in the face of catastrophic pandemics (or other relevant existential threats). Prioritization could identify the several island nations that are most suitable for targeting social and political preparations and further investment in resiliency. We outline a prioritization methodology and as an initial demonstration, we then provide example rankings by considering 20 sovereign island states (all with populations greater than 250,000 and no land borders). Results describe each nation in nine resilience‐relevant domains covering location, population, resources, and society according to published data. The results indicate that the most suitable island nations for refuge status are Australia, followed closely by New Zealand, and then Iceland, with other nations all well behind (including the relatively high‐income ones of Malta and Japan). Nevertheless, some key contextual factors remain relatively unexplored. These include the capacity of the jurisdiction to rapidly close its borders when the emerging threat was first detected elsewhere, and whether or not large subnational islands should be the preferred focus for refuge design (e.g., the Australian state of Tasmania, the island of Hokkaido in Japan, or the South Island of New Zealand). Overall, this work provides conceptual thinking with some initial example analysis. Further research could refine the selection of metrics, how best to weight the relevant domains, and how the populations of prioritized island nations view their nation's selection as a potential refuge for human survival. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Matt Boyd Nick Wilson |
spellingShingle |
Matt Boyd Nick Wilson The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics |
author_facet |
Matt Boyd Nick Wilson |
author_sort |
Matt Boyd |
title |
The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics |
title_short |
The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics |
title_full |
The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics |
title_fullStr |
The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics |
title_sort |
prioritization of island nations as refuges from extreme pandemics |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13398 |
geographic |
New Zealand |
geographic_facet |
New Zealand |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13398 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13398 |
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Risk Analysis |
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40 |
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2 |
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227 |
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239 |
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1766041624358420480 |