| Summary: | Permafrost—a widespread constituent of the terrestrial environment—by definition is dependent upon the ambient temperature for its existence and properties. Thus, it is very sensitive to climatic changes. Simple relations based upon conductive heat transfer, with thawing and geothermal heat flow, are presented to predict the transient effects of surface temperature increases on the thermal state of permafrost. The results indicate that, based on the usual global warming scenarios, relatively small amounts of permafrost will disappear within 50–100 years. This is specifically shown for the most thermally sensitive cases, that is, warm or relict permafrost. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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