Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route
Recently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowada...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03088839.2019.1693064 |
id |
ftrepec:oai:RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:47:y:2020:i:3:p:352-370 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftrepec:oai:RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:47:y:2020:i:3:p:352-370 2023-05-15T14:33:51+02:00 Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route Ye Zhang Hao Hu Lei Dai http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03088839.2019.1693064 unknown http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03088839.2019.1693064 article ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:41:49Z Recently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowadays, with the rapid development of sensors on board, more related data has become available. Thus, implementing comprehensive Arctic maritime risk assessment is urgent and necessary in practice. This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction. Specifically, real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be firstly obtained with projection pursuit method from 10 risk indicators. Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set, information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely. Also, the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly. Case study based on ‘Yongsheng’ is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings can be useful for the operators and management on board during the Arctic voyage. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
op_collection_id |
ftrepec |
language |
unknown |
description |
Recently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowadays, with the rapid development of sensors on board, more related data has become available. Thus, implementing comprehensive Arctic maritime risk assessment is urgent and necessary in practice. This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction. Specifically, real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be firstly obtained with projection pursuit method from 10 risk indicators. Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set, information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely. Also, the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly. Case study based on ‘Yongsheng’ is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings can be useful for the operators and management on board during the Arctic voyage. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ye Zhang Hao Hu Lei Dai |
spellingShingle |
Ye Zhang Hao Hu Lei Dai Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route |
author_facet |
Ye Zhang Hao Hu Lei Dai |
author_sort |
Ye Zhang |
title |
Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route |
title_short |
Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route |
title_full |
Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route |
title_fullStr |
Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route |
title_full_unstemmed |
Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route |
title_sort |
real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the arctic route |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03088839.2019.1693064 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03088839.2019.1693064 |
_version_ |
1766307031098064896 |