Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise
There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5--6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the mos...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13669870600717632 |
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:9:y:2006:i:5:p:467-482 2023-05-15T14:03:21+02:00 Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise Richard S. J. Tol Maria Bohn Thomas E. Downing Marie-Laure Guillerminet Eva Hizsnyik Roger Kasperson Kate Lonsdale Claire Mays Robert J. Nicholls Alexander A. Olsthoorn Gabriele Pfeifle Marc Poumadere Ferenc L. Toth Athanasios T. Vafeidis Peter E. van der Werff I. Hakan Yetkiner http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13669870600717632 unknown http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13669870600717632 article ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:32:37Z There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5--6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam--Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Antarctic Rhone ENVELOPE(158.733,158.733,-79.983,-79.983) West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
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Open Polar |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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ftrepec |
language |
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description |
There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5--6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam--Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Richard S. J. Tol Maria Bohn Thomas E. Downing Marie-Laure Guillerminet Eva Hizsnyik Roger Kasperson Kate Lonsdale Claire Mays Robert J. Nicholls Alexander A. Olsthoorn Gabriele Pfeifle Marc Poumadere Ferenc L. Toth Athanasios T. Vafeidis Peter E. van der Werff I. Hakan Yetkiner |
spellingShingle |
Richard S. J. Tol Maria Bohn Thomas E. Downing Marie-Laure Guillerminet Eva Hizsnyik Roger Kasperson Kate Lonsdale Claire Mays Robert J. Nicholls Alexander A. Olsthoorn Gabriele Pfeifle Marc Poumadere Ferenc L. Toth Athanasios T. Vafeidis Peter E. van der Werff I. Hakan Yetkiner Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise |
author_facet |
Richard S. J. Tol Maria Bohn Thomas E. Downing Marie-Laure Guillerminet Eva Hizsnyik Roger Kasperson Kate Lonsdale Claire Mays Robert J. Nicholls Alexander A. Olsthoorn Gabriele Pfeifle Marc Poumadere Ferenc L. Toth Athanasios T. Vafeidis Peter E. van der Werff I. Hakan Yetkiner |
author_sort |
Richard S. J. Tol |
title |
Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise |
title_short |
Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise |
title_full |
Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise |
title_fullStr |
Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise |
title_sort |
adaptation to five metres of sea level rise |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13669870600717632 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(158.733,158.733,-79.983,-79.983) |
geographic |
Antarctic Rhone West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Rhone West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13669870600717632 |
_version_ |
1766273985624932352 |