Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes
Abstract The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami motivated an analysis of the potential for great tsunamis in Hawai‘i that significantly exceed the historical record. The largest potential tsunamis that may impact the state from distant, Mw 9 earthquakes—as forecast by two independent tsunami models—...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:85:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2650-0 2023-05-15T18:48:50+02:00 Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes Rhett Butler David Walsh Kevin Richards http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-016-2650-0 unknown http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-016-2650-0 article ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:43:15Z Abstract The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami motivated an analysis of the potential for great tsunamis in Hawai‘i that significantly exceed the historical record. The largest potential tsunamis that may impact the state from distant, Mw 9 earthquakes—as forecast by two independent tsunami models—originate in the Eastern Aleutian Islands. This analysis is the basis for creating an extreme tsunami evacuation zone, updating prior zones based only on historical tsunami inundation. We first validate the methodology by corroborating that the largest historical tsunami in 1946 is consistent with the seismologically determined earthquake source and observed historical tsunami amplitudes in Hawai‘i. Using prior source characteristics of Mw 9 earthquakes (fault area, slip, and distribution), we analyze parametrically the range of Aleutian–Alaska earthquake sources that produce the most extreme tsunami events in Hawai‘i. Key findings include: (1) An Mw 8.6 ± 0.1 1946 Aleutian earthquake source fits Hawai‘i tsunami run-up/inundation observations, (2) for the 40 scenarios considered here, maximal tsunami inundations everywhere in the Hawaiian Islands cannot be generated by a single large earthquake, (3) depending on location, the largest inundations may occur for either earthquakes with the largest slip at the trench, or those with broad faulting over an extended area, (4) these extremes are shown to correlate with the frequency content (wavelength) of the tsunami, (5) highly variable slip along the fault strike has only a minor influence on inundation at these tele-tsunami distances, and (6) for a given maximum average fault slip, increasing the fault area does not generally produce greater run-up, as the additional wave energy enhances longer wavelengths, with a modest effect on inundation. Tsunami modeling, 1946 tsunami, Earthquake source mechanisms, Tsunami inundation, North Pacific, Aleutian Islands, and Hawai‘i Article in Journal/Newspaper Alaska Aleutian Islands RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Pacific |
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Abstract The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami motivated an analysis of the potential for great tsunamis in Hawai‘i that significantly exceed the historical record. The largest potential tsunamis that may impact the state from distant, Mw 9 earthquakes—as forecast by two independent tsunami models—originate in the Eastern Aleutian Islands. This analysis is the basis for creating an extreme tsunami evacuation zone, updating prior zones based only on historical tsunami inundation. We first validate the methodology by corroborating that the largest historical tsunami in 1946 is consistent with the seismologically determined earthquake source and observed historical tsunami amplitudes in Hawai‘i. Using prior source characteristics of Mw 9 earthquakes (fault area, slip, and distribution), we analyze parametrically the range of Aleutian–Alaska earthquake sources that produce the most extreme tsunami events in Hawai‘i. Key findings include: (1) An Mw 8.6 ± 0.1 1946 Aleutian earthquake source fits Hawai‘i tsunami run-up/inundation observations, (2) for the 40 scenarios considered here, maximal tsunami inundations everywhere in the Hawaiian Islands cannot be generated by a single large earthquake, (3) depending on location, the largest inundations may occur for either earthquakes with the largest slip at the trench, or those with broad faulting over an extended area, (4) these extremes are shown to correlate with the frequency content (wavelength) of the tsunami, (5) highly variable slip along the fault strike has only a minor influence on inundation at these tele-tsunami distances, and (6) for a given maximum average fault slip, increasing the fault area does not generally produce greater run-up, as the additional wave energy enhances longer wavelengths, with a modest effect on inundation. Tsunami modeling, 1946 tsunami, Earthquake source mechanisms, Tsunami inundation, North Pacific, Aleutian Islands, and Hawai‘i |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rhett Butler David Walsh Kevin Richards |
spellingShingle |
Rhett Butler David Walsh Kevin Richards Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes |
author_facet |
Rhett Butler David Walsh Kevin Richards |
author_sort |
Rhett Butler |
title |
Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes |
title_short |
Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes |
title_full |
Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes |
title_fullStr |
Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes |
title_sort |
extreme tsunami inundation in hawai‘i from aleutian–alaska subduction zone earthquakes |
url |
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-016-2650-0 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Alaska Aleutian Islands |
genre_facet |
Alaska Aleutian Islands |
op_relation |
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-016-2650-0 |
_version_ |
1766242136334794752 |