On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction
The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:51:y:2009:i:1:p:49-61 2023-05-15T18:21:06+02:00 On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction Paula Etala http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-009-9377-0 unknown http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-009-9377-0 article ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:32:03Z The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h. The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The 24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009 Storm surge, Numerical modeling, Coupling, Atmospheric forcing, Verification Article in Journal/Newspaper South Atlantic Ocean RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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Open Polar |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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unknown |
description |
The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h. The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The 24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009 Storm surge, Numerical modeling, Coupling, Atmospheric forcing, Verification |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Paula Etala |
spellingShingle |
Paula Etala On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction |
author_facet |
Paula Etala |
author_sort |
Paula Etala |
title |
On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction |
title_short |
On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction |
title_full |
On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction |
title_fullStr |
On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction |
title_sort |
on the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-009-9377-0 |
genre |
South Atlantic Ocean |
genre_facet |
South Atlantic Ocean |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-009-9377-0 |
_version_ |
1766200179025772544 |