Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation

A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North Atlanti...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Jonas Rumpf, Helga Weindl, Peter Höppe, Ernst Rauch, Volker Schmidt
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Subjects:
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9
id ftrepec:oai:RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:48:y:2009:i:3:p:383-398
record_format openpolar
spelling ftrepec:oai:RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:48:y:2009:i:3:p:383-398 2023-05-15T17:28:38+02:00 Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation Jonas Rumpf Helga Weindl Peter Höppe Ernst Rauch Volker Schmidt http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9 unknown http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9 article ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:35:35Z A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North Atlantic basin. Subsequently, a large number of synthetic tracks is generated by means of an implementation of this model. This synthetic data is far more comprehensive than the available historical data, while exhibiting the same basic characteristics. It, thus, creates a more sound basis for assessing landfall probabilities than previously available, especially in areas with a low historical landfall frequency. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009 Tropical cyclones, Hurricanes, Landfall hazard, Stochastic model, Monte-Carlo simulation Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic RePEc (Research Papers in Economics)
institution Open Polar
collection RePEc (Research Papers in Economics)
op_collection_id ftrepec
language unknown
description A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North Atlantic basin. Subsequently, a large number of synthetic tracks is generated by means of an implementation of this model. This synthetic data is far more comprehensive than the available historical data, while exhibiting the same basic characteristics. It, thus, creates a more sound basis for assessing landfall probabilities than previously available, especially in areas with a low historical landfall frequency. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009 Tropical cyclones, Hurricanes, Landfall hazard, Stochastic model, Monte-Carlo simulation
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Jonas Rumpf
Helga Weindl
Peter Höppe
Ernst Rauch
Volker Schmidt
spellingShingle Jonas Rumpf
Helga Weindl
Peter Höppe
Ernst Rauch
Volker Schmidt
Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
author_facet Jonas Rumpf
Helga Weindl
Peter Höppe
Ernst Rauch
Volker Schmidt
author_sort Jonas Rumpf
title Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
title_short Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
title_full Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
title_fullStr Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
title_full_unstemmed Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
title_sort tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
url http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9
genre North Atlantic
genre_facet North Atlantic
op_relation http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9
_version_ 1766121431327834112

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