High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers
Abstract This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over the last century, as would be expected from long-term climate change. However, we also identify modes of climat...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:spr:climat:v:152:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2361-5 2023-05-15T17:33:18+02:00 High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers Daniel F. Schmidt Kevin M. Grise Michael L. Pace http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2361-5 unknown http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2361-5 article ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:31:01Z Abstract This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over the last century, as would be expected from long-term climate change. However, we also identify modes of climate variability that significantly impact the short-term behavior of ice-off time series. In particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), and to a lesser degree the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explain a substantial fraction of the interannual variance in melt dates, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) generally do not. Furthermore, the spatial pattern of the early or late ice-off dates associated with the NAO, PNA, and ENSO matches a priori expectations due to the known surface temperature patterns associated with these oscillations. In all regions, the strongest correlation to ice-off is with one of the high-frequency modes—the NAO or PNA, suggesting that short-term weather variations play a stronger role than lower-frequency climate variability (ENSO, PDO, AMO) in driving ice-off. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Pacific |
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Open Polar |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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Abstract This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over the last century, as would be expected from long-term climate change. However, we also identify modes of climate variability that significantly impact the short-term behavior of ice-off time series. In particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), and to a lesser degree the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explain a substantial fraction of the interannual variance in melt dates, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) generally do not. Furthermore, the spatial pattern of the early or late ice-off dates associated with the NAO, PNA, and ENSO matches a priori expectations due to the known surface temperature patterns associated with these oscillations. In all regions, the strongest correlation to ice-off is with one of the high-frequency modes—the NAO or PNA, suggesting that short-term weather variations play a stronger role than lower-frequency climate variability (ENSO, PDO, AMO) in driving ice-off. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Daniel F. Schmidt Kevin M. Grise Michael L. Pace |
spellingShingle |
Daniel F. Schmidt Kevin M. Grise Michael L. Pace High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers |
author_facet |
Daniel F. Schmidt Kevin M. Grise Michael L. Pace |
author_sort |
Daniel F. Schmidt |
title |
High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers |
title_short |
High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers |
title_full |
High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers |
title_fullStr |
High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers |
title_full_unstemmed |
High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers |
title_sort |
high-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for northern hemisphere lakes and rivers |
url |
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2361-5 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2361-5 |
_version_ |
1766131774043193344 |