Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland
The paper explores the quarterly sequence of business cycles in Iceland for 40 years between 1970 and 2009 using the business cycle technique of Leamer (2009). We apply first a turning point (TP) dating identification procedure based on the Hendrick-Prescott (HP) filter of the quarterly growth rates...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Format: | Report |
Language: | unknown |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp13_10.pdf |
id |
ftrepec:oai:RePEc:rim:rimwps:13_10 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftrepec:oai:RePEc:rim:rimwps:13_10 2023-05-15T16:46:19+02:00 Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland Wolfgang Polasek http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp13_10.pdf unknown http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp13_10.pdf preprint ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:33:42Z The paper explores the quarterly sequence of business cycles in Iceland for 40 years between 1970 and 2009 using the business cycle technique of Leamer (2009). We apply first a turning point (TP) dating identification procedure based on the Hendrick-Prescott (HP) filter of the quarterly growth rates of GDP and then we use different candidates for leading indicators for turning points. We find that the Iceland economy has a rather short business cycle of about 3 years and most macroeconomic indicators are in accordance with the business cycles. Only a few indicators have a predictive potential, some variables like consumption show a one quarter lag. Furthermore, we apply the concept of abnormal contributions to growth for candidates as a leading indicator of turning points. We find that over the last decade there is some evidence that abnormal growth contributions are better indicators for troughs than for peaks. Business Cycle dating, HP filtering, exploratory turning point analysis, lead and lag indicators, abnormal growth contributions, gross domestic product (GDP) growth Report Iceland RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
op_collection_id |
ftrepec |
language |
unknown |
description |
The paper explores the quarterly sequence of business cycles in Iceland for 40 years between 1970 and 2009 using the business cycle technique of Leamer (2009). We apply first a turning point (TP) dating identification procedure based on the Hendrick-Prescott (HP) filter of the quarterly growth rates of GDP and then we use different candidates for leading indicators for turning points. We find that the Iceland economy has a rather short business cycle of about 3 years and most macroeconomic indicators are in accordance with the business cycles. Only a few indicators have a predictive potential, some variables like consumption show a one quarter lag. Furthermore, we apply the concept of abnormal contributions to growth for candidates as a leading indicator of turning points. We find that over the last decade there is some evidence that abnormal growth contributions are better indicators for troughs than for peaks. Business Cycle dating, HP filtering, exploratory turning point analysis, lead and lag indicators, abnormal growth contributions, gross domestic product (GDP) growth |
format |
Report |
author |
Wolfgang Polasek |
spellingShingle |
Wolfgang Polasek Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland |
author_facet |
Wolfgang Polasek |
author_sort |
Wolfgang Polasek |
title |
Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland |
title_short |
Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland |
title_full |
Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland |
title_fullStr |
Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland |
title_sort |
dating and exploration of the business cycle in iceland |
url |
http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp13_10.pdf |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp13_10.pdf |
_version_ |
1766036410676019200 |