Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change

Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded qua...

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Main Author: Cooke, Roger M.
Format: Report
Language:unknown
Subjects:
Ice Sheet
Online Access:http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-14-11.pdf
id ftrepec:oai:RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-11
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spelling ftrepec:oai:RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-11 2023-05-15T16:40:37+02:00 Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change Cooke, Roger M. http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-14-11.pdf unknown http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-14-11.pdf preprint ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:34:13Z Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded quantification of subjective uncertainty, deep uncertainty is frequently invoked to disable uncertainty quantification, with attendant problems in communicating and propagating uncertainty through chains of reasoning. These issues, together with science-based uncertainty quantification, are illustrated with recent applications to ice sheet dynamics. The issues of performance assessment and validation are addressed. deep uncertainty, Knightian uncertainty, risk, expert judgment, climate change Report Ice Sheet RePEc (Research Papers in Economics)
institution Open Polar
collection RePEc (Research Papers in Economics)
op_collection_id ftrepec
language unknown
description Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded quantification of subjective uncertainty, deep uncertainty is frequently invoked to disable uncertainty quantification, with attendant problems in communicating and propagating uncertainty through chains of reasoning. These issues, together with science-based uncertainty quantification, are illustrated with recent applications to ice sheet dynamics. The issues of performance assessment and validation are addressed. deep uncertainty, Knightian uncertainty, risk, expert judgment, climate change
format Report
author Cooke, Roger M.
spellingShingle Cooke, Roger M.
Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
author_facet Cooke, Roger M.
author_sort Cooke, Roger M.
title Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
title_short Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
title_full Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
title_fullStr Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
title_sort deep and shallow uncertainty in messaging climate change
url http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-14-11.pdf
genre Ice Sheet
genre_facet Ice Sheet
op_relation http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-14-11.pdf
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