Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands
The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with a...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:plo:pone00:0167026 2023-05-15T13:59:16+02:00 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands Rebecca Upson Jennifer J Williams Tim P Wilkinson Colin P Clubbe Ilya M D Maclean Jim H McAdam Justin F Moat https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167026 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167026&type=printable unknown https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167026 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167026&type=printable article ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:41:56Z The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020–2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020–2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rebecca Upson Jennifer J Williams Tim P Wilkinson Colin P Clubbe Ilya M D Maclean Jim H McAdam Justin F Moat |
spellingShingle |
Rebecca Upson Jennifer J Williams Tim P Wilkinson Colin P Clubbe Ilya M D Maclean Jim H McAdam Justin F Moat Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands |
author_facet |
Rebecca Upson Jennifer J Williams Tim P Wilkinson Colin P Clubbe Ilya M D Maclean Jim H McAdam Justin F Moat |
author_sort |
Rebecca Upson |
title |
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands |
title_short |
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands |
title_full |
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands |
title_fullStr |
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands |
title_sort |
potential impacts of climate change on native plant distributions in the falkland islands |
url |
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167026 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167026&type=printable |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_relation |
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167026 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167026&type=printable |
_version_ |
1766267783554793472 |