On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology
Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive cov...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:plo:pone00:0141416 2023-05-15T15:43:52+02:00 On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology Paul B Conn Devin S Johnson Peter L Boveng https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141416 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141416&type=printable unknown https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141416 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141416&type=printable article ftrepec 2020-12-04T13:32:14Z Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook’s notion of an independent variable hull (IVH), developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH) can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occurring outside the gIVH can be regarded as extrapolations worthy of additional investigation or skepticism. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the usefulness of this metric for limiting the scope of spatial inference when conducting model-based abundance estimation from survey counts. In this case, limiting inference to the gIVH substantially reduces bias, especially when survey designs are spatially imbalanced. We also demonstrate the utility of the gIVH in diagnosing problematic extrapolations when estimating the relative abundance of ribbon seals in the Bering Sea as a function of predictive covariates. We suggest that ecologists routinely use diagnostics such as the gIVH to help gauge the reliability of predictions from statistical models (such as generalized linear, generalized additive, and spatio-temporal regression models). Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Bering Sea |
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Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook’s notion of an independent variable hull (IVH), developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH) can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occurring outside the gIVH can be regarded as extrapolations worthy of additional investigation or skepticism. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the usefulness of this metric for limiting the scope of spatial inference when conducting model-based abundance estimation from survey counts. In this case, limiting inference to the gIVH substantially reduces bias, especially when survey designs are spatially imbalanced. We also demonstrate the utility of the gIVH in diagnosing problematic extrapolations when estimating the relative abundance of ribbon seals in the Bering Sea as a function of predictive covariates. We suggest that ecologists routinely use diagnostics such as the gIVH to help gauge the reliability of predictions from statistical models (such as generalized linear, generalized additive, and spatio-temporal regression models). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Paul B Conn Devin S Johnson Peter L Boveng |
spellingShingle |
Paul B Conn Devin S Johnson Peter L Boveng On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology |
author_facet |
Paul B Conn Devin S Johnson Peter L Boveng |
author_sort |
Paul B Conn |
title |
On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology |
title_short |
On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology |
title_full |
On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology |
title_fullStr |
On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology |
title_full_unstemmed |
On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology |
title_sort |
on extrapolating past the range of observed data when making statistical predictions in ecology |
url |
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141416 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141416&type=printable |
geographic |
Bering Sea |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea |
genre |
Bering Sea |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea |
op_relation |
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141416 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141416&type=printable |
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